The 2008 US Presidential Election Thread

[The_Noble_Cause]

I should probably wait to see how this plays out but I'm pretty sure it'll go largely unnoticed. RVR is correct, the hypocricy will be that this will get very little media attention.

Give that Obama is black, people are a little overly sensitive, but isn't the fact that this story was from CBS News already show it hasn't gone unnoticed?

[Skylorde]

Give that Obama is black, people are a little overly sensitive, but isn't the fact that this story was from CBS News already show it hasn't gone unnoticed?

Umm, yes and no. It's local LA CBS. Here's the link

http://cbs2.com/local/Sarah.Palin.manne ... 49299.html

[Gin and Tonic Sky]

The problem IS everytime money changes hands (redistribution) the government gets a cut. THIS needs to be changed.

.

thats why free markets in an environment of low taxes work as the best allocator . The government gets a very low cut and little gets wasted.

[Enigma869]

Well fuck me to tears

I'm so stealing that.

Well, that hardly seems appropriate for our resident BJ Girl


John from Boston

[conversationpc]

Look, here's the deal. My best friend (of 25 years) and coincidently my financial guru, has been telling me for 3 months that every time his phone rings he knows whats coming on the other end. Sell,Sell,Sell. He was managing over 48 million in assets and now has about 19.5 million. The same conversation has gone on over and over again. "I'll pay that tax now at 15% and put the remainder in safer investments." Tax free muni's, CD, Money Markets and so on. This is real dude, I am not making it up.

Now keep in mind what you said about historic lows. You couldn't be farthur from the truth. These everyday investors have been in the market for 25-30 years. Some were buying stocks in the 70's and 80's when the Dow was in the 1000 point range. With the Dow at 8300 today they have realized quite a huge gain still. Yes it would have been better to have sold at 12,000 or 13,000 a year ago but they still have big gains from a lifetime of investing. So yes, selling is still going on. IF you've only been in the market for the last 8-10 years it wouldn't make any sense and you're right. But I'm talking about the big boys who've been around forever and have big money tied up.

Should McCain win and make the Bush tax cuts permanent (or at least sustain them for 4 more years) you will see that money go right back into the market and off we go to 13,000 again.

I'm not that optimistic but I do see your point. A capital gains tax increase would certainly hurt the economy at this point. I don't think, though, that we would go back up to 13,000 again.

[Gin and Tonic Sky]

Well fuck me to tears

I'm so stealing that.

Me three....thats my new favorite saying

[Don]

Alaska's largest-circulation paper, the Anchorage Daily News, while giving props to Palin, endorses Obama.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/us_ ... 692731.stm

[strangegrey]

Really...you actually believe the shit you type?

I'm not talking about market "movers and shakers", I'm talking about everyday Joe the Investor.

Oh Jesus Christ, will the right please stop using the poor fucking joe's of the world to get their points across...

First off, your use of Joe the investor is misleading. You are currently using a term that has been bastardized by the right to refer to the middle class, in referring to what I refer to as movers and shakers.

Movers and Shakers are people that have tremendously large positions in the markets. That dont buy and sell in odd values. They're buying and selling positions with lots of zeros (i.e. even values) behind them.

The Movers and Shakers are the people that you are refering to, not "Joe the investor" ...and to that end, you might be correct in the concept that people who have been investing in this market since the 60s and 70s are now viewing their diminishing positions as an opportunity to liquidate, so as to realize long term capital gains at 15%, and reinvest in safer instruments....these people, given the duration you're citing, may be people close enough to retirement to *not* want to ride out the market for the next 10 years at the expense of their positions. If I were in such a position that I was between 55-65, and liquidating at this stage still resulted in a capital gain (irrespective of whether it was 15% or 20%), I would likely consider liquidation.

However, the motivation to do so at this point in time, would likely *not* be precipitated by Obama either signing new tax legislation or allowing bush tax cuts to sunset in 2010. That sort of thing will take several months or possibly a year or more to materialize. At the very least, it wouldn't be until the afternoon of January 20th, 2009. I would likely be more concerned with my position being further hit by market volitility and recent falls in the market. The volitility and falls were precipitated by far more substantial and documentable causes....not people getting scared of Obama. People are scared for other reasons relating to the market. Obama is most definitely a secondary or tertiary factor...and that's ONLY if you believe that 100% of investors share your opinion. Chances are, the trend will likely follow that of the elections.


The point of contention here is not what's going on behind the scenes, but what's motivating it. Like I said, the decission to liquidate now to protect what position I have left in a market investment that I've made over 40 years, would not be fear of an obama presidency, but fear that my position would get hammered harder in the coming months due to the verifiable and cited market factors currently impacting the market, not imaginary ones like big bad barry.


Im cringing here, becuase i'm sick of the fucking Joes. However, f you want to talk about "Joe the Investor"...let's talk about him. He's the person that since the large increase in investment volume thats happened since the Mid 90s, has been investing into 401ks, mutual funds, stock investments. Joe's been buying stocks since 1994 at greatly inflated prices....as a result of a tech bubble, a housing bubble and a derivative bubble. These people are not 5-10 years from retirement. They're 10-40 years from retirement.

If your friend and fiancial advisor of 25 years isn't stressing that Joe the investor keep his position in the market, to prevent him from realizing losses from selling low and buying high, he shouldn't be in the business he's in....and you would do better taking advice from someone else.


However, again...the point of contention here is not what kind of moves what type of investor is making....but what the underlying causes of the market collapse is.

I still submit, that to suggest fear of Obama, is about as rediculous as suggesting price surges at Disney World are resulting in massive traffic congestion...when the real cause is an evacuation due to an imminent and deadly hurricane.

[strangegrey]

While I agree that lowering capital gains taxes will result in market activity...the problem here, is that increased market activity isn't what's needed right now. In fact, I'll submit TOO many people have been active in the market recently...which is why this market crissis is going to hurt alot more people than the crash of 87 or dare I say, the crash of 29.

Since the mid 90s, far more people have positions in the market, be it through day-trading investments of mutual funds or stocks, or more likely, 401k accounts. All one has to do is look at the volume and growth of the stock market since the mid 90s.

lowering capital gains taxes in an unhealthy investment environment (like during the various bubbles experienced since the late 90s) is like pouring gasoline on a fire.


I'll be an advocate of lowering investment taxation, when the following things are completed:

* corporations finally have reporting transparency. This hasn't been a reality since any of us have been alive...and likely not to change. The current attack on SFAS 157 is further evidence to this fact.

* US tax code is modified so that unintended consequences of lowering (or raising) one set of taxes does not have a negative impact on others. I'll submit that with investment taxes being lowered, Bush has allowed the wrong group of people to engage in tax avoidance, while hurting a different group of wrong people.

* Financial instruments like hedges, shorts, MBS, CDS markets are regulated in such a fashion that they are not abused...and more importantly, regulated in a fashion that prevents ANY level of market speculation bubbles to occur.


Until then, increased market activity, is just dangerous. Personally, I'd like to see volume subside a bit until corrections are made...

[RossValoryRocks]

Since almost NO ONE will have capital gains this year, unless they bought some stock year ago at $1/share, raising the capital gains taxes won't have the effect being described by FF.

However, it will certainly have an effect on future investment in this country. I disagree with Obama raising the tax for a variety of reasons, but this particular reason is disengenuous.

If Obama raises the capital gains taxes:

1. There will be far less money flowing into the market by the "movers and shakers".

2. And far less venture capital money available to stimulate new businesses.

3. It is going to hobble our economy in the short and long terms to raise the capital gains taxes.

But I HIGHLY doubt people will be coming out of the market this year with the crash that has happened because there would be no advantage to it.

[Skylorde]

Lighten things up

THIS IS A NONPARTISAN JOKE THAT CAN BE ENJOYED BY BOTH PARTIES! NOT
ONLY THAT-- it is POLITICALLY CORRECT!!

While walking down the street one day a US senator is tragically hit by a truck and dies.

His soul arrives in heaven and is met by St. Peter at the entrance.

"Welcome to heaven," says St. Peter. "Before you settle in, it seems there is a problem. We seldom see a high official around these parts, you see, so we're not sure what to do with you."

"No problem, just let me in," says the man.

"Well, I'd like to, but I have orders from higher up. What we'll do is have you spend one day in hell and one in heaven. Then you can choose where to spend eternity."

"Really, I've made up my mind. I want to be in heaven," says the senator.

"I'm sorry, but we have our rules."

And with that, St. Peter escorts him to the elevator and he goes down, down, down to hell. The doors open and he finds himself in the middle of a green golf course. In the distance is a club house and standing in front of it are all his friends and other politicians who had worked with him.

Everyone is very happy and in evening dress. They run to greet him, shake his hand, and reminisce about the good times they had, while getting rich at the expense of the people.

They play a friendly game of golf and then dine on lobster, caviar and champagne.

Also present is the devil, who really is a very friendly guy who has a good time dancing and telling jokes. They are having such a good time that before he realizes it, it is time to go.

Everyone gives him a hearty farewell and waves while the elevator rises...

The elevator goes up, up, up and the door reopens on heaven where St. Peter is waiting for him.

"Now it's time to visit heaven."

So, 24 hours pass with the senator joining a group of contented souls moving from cloud to cloud, playing the harp and singing. They have a good time and, before he realizes it, the 24 hours have gone by and St. Peter returns.

"Well, then, you've spent a day in hell and another in heaven. Now choose your eternity."

The senator reflects for a minute, then he answers: "Well, I would never have said it before, I mean heaven has been delightful, but I think I would be better off in hell."

So St. Peter escorts him to the elevator and he goes down, down, down to hell.

Now the doors of the elevator open and he's in the middle of a barren land covered with waste and garbage.

He sees all his friends, dressed in rags, picking up the trash and putting it in black bags as more trash falls from above.

The devil comes over to him and puts his arm around his shoulder. "I don't understand," stammers the senator. "Yesterday I was here and there was a golf course and clubhouse, and we ate lobster and caviar, drank champagne, and danced and had a great time. Now there's just a wasteland full of garbage and my friends look miserable. What happened?"

The devil looks at him, smiles and says, "Yesterday we were campaigning. Today you voted."

[strangegrey]

Stu, whether or not someone records a capital gain this year entirely depends on the length of his/her position. As FF and I have stated, if someone's got static positions in corporations from points prior to, where there was, say 8000 on the dow...perhaps they will have gains. However, it's all in all possible, and very likely that their positions are not static and that they have additional layers of investment at higher values, offsetting gains with losses.

It depends, really, on whether or not an investor is exposed at higher market costs as well as lower market costs.


I've already mentioned this above, but just lowering capital gains taxes expecting it to fix everything is similar in concept to pouring money into corporations without fixing the reasons they need bailout funds. It's throwing money at problems without fixing them...

[RossValoryRocks]

Stu, whether or not someone records a capital gain this year entirely depends on the length of his/her position. As FF and I have stated, if someone's got static positions in corporations from points prior to, where there was, say 8000 on the dow...perhaps they will have gains. However, it's all in all possible, and very likely that their positions are not static and that they have additional layers of investment at higher values, offsetting gains with losses.

It depends, really, on whether or not an investor is exposed at higher market costs as well as lower market costs.


I've already mentioned this above, but just lowering capital gains taxes expecting it to fix everything is similar in concept to pouring money into corporations without fixing the reasons they need bailout funds. It's throwing money at problems without fixing them...

Most people have flipped their positions several times since the prior 8000 level. Too much upside not to do so.

I understand all this.

I also didn't say that lowering the capital gains tax would fix anything, nor did I advocate doing so. I merely suggested what would happen if the cap. gains taxes are raised in the future.

[strangegrey]

Most people have flipped their positions several times since the prior 8000 level. Too much upside not to do so.

I understand all this.

I also didn't say that lowering the capital gains tax would fix anything, nor did I advocate doing so. I merely suggested what would happen if the cap. gains taxes are raised in the future.

Sorry, Stu...my comments regarding investment positions and investment tax policy weren't meant directly at you, despite the fact that I addressed you at the onset of the post. I was more waxing in a general context...so, regardless, I shouldn't have prefaced my post with your name. In fact, I was trying to build on what you were saying by offering additional clarification...

Sorry about the misunderstanding....

[S2M]

And I thought the RNC couldn't go any lower.....

[Tito]

2001 Obama audio - redistribution of wealth.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iivL4c_3pck


Constitution reflected fundamental flaw of this country that continues to the day.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=11OhmY1obS4

Race baiting?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHxH5aUM ... pepad.com/

Lapse in judgement

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aj4_rtyf ... pepad.com/

[S2M]

Anybody else find it quite suspicious that there hasn't been a terrorist attack since 9/11?

Me, personally? I don't fear one.....that's the repubs schtick.

[Centaure]

2001 Obama audio - redistribution of wealth.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iivL4c_3pck


Constitution reflected fundamental flaw of this country that continues to the day.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=11OhmY1obS4

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/ ... ml?showall

[conversationpc]

Anybody else find it quite suspicious that there hasn't been a terrorist attack since 9/11?

No...You also don't believe we landed on the moon. If the Repubs wanted to stage disasters as a political tool, don't you think they would have done so closer to an important election or something like that?

I suppose you're also one of those 9/11 Truther nuts?

[Tito]

Anybody else find it quite suspicious that there hasn't been a terrorist attack since 9/11?

No...You also don't believe we landed on the moon. If the Repubs wanted to stage disasters as a political tool, don't you think they would have done so closer to an important election or something like that?

I suppose you're also one of those 9/11 Truther nuts?

You know, if you look how that one tower fell.............

[strangegrey]

Remember that Clinton raised taxes retroactively a few months after being sworn in. They ain't waiting until Jan 21st to find out.

good point, and well stated....

[strangegrey]

If the Repubs wanted to stage disasters as a political tool, don't you think they would have done so closer to an important election or something like that?

Yep....right now or even a week or two ago, would be PRIME time for either some monumental success in the middle east, a disaster that showcases republican leadership or the both....in order to swing things in the other direction. If the party is capable of such thing, I would imagine that they would have tried to use the tool to their advantage by now....

[conversationpc]

Anybody else find it quite suspicious that there hasn't been a terrorist attack since 9/11?

No...You also don't believe we landed on the moon. If the Repubs wanted to stage disasters as a political tool, don't you think they would have done so closer to an important election or something like that?

I suppose you're also one of those 9/11 Truther nuts?

You know, if you look how that one tower fell.............

Yeah...Almost every 9/11 Truther argument that I'm aware of has been debunked long ago.

[S2M]

Anybody else find it quite suspicious that there hasn't been a terrorist attack since 9/11?

No...You also don't believe we landed on the moon. If the Repubs wanted to stage disasters as a political tool, don't you think they would have done so closer to an important election or something like that?

I suppose you're also one of those 9/11 Truther nuts?

You know, if you look how that one tower fell.............

Yeah...Almost every 9/11 Truther argument that I'm aware of has been debunked long ago.

Why would they stage another attack? We're in Iraq....the election is lost to them. NOTHING can win it for them now. They are IN Iraq, making BILLIONS. THAT was their motivation.

[Skylorde]

This is seriously laughable. Talk about grasping for straws

Heads up, this is a PDF file

An Examination of Obama’s Use of Hidden Hypnosis Techniques in His Speeches

[S2M]

Another question you have to ask yourself.

Now that the Bush Admin is closing in on the end, who will W. pardon?

I'm thinking Libby, Campeion and Ramos....

Whatcha got?

[Barb]

Oh my God!

Assassination plot targeting Obama disrupted

Oct 27 04:23 PM US/Eastern
By LARA JAKES JORDAN
Associated Press Writer Write a Comment


WASHINGTON (AP) - The ATF says it has broken up a plot to assassinate Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama and shoot or decapitate 102 black people in a Tennessee murder spree.
In court records unsealed Monday, agents said they disrupted plans to rob a gun store and target an unnamed but predominantly African-American high school by two neo-Nazi skinheads.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP's earlier story is below.

WASHINGTON (AP)—The ATF says it has broken up a plot to assassinate Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama and shoot or decapitate 102 black people in a Tennessee murder spree.

In court records unsealed Monday, agents said they disrupted plans to rob a gun store and target an unnamed by predominantly African-American high school by two neo-Nazi skinheads.

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id ... _article=1

[Tito]

Another question you have to ask yourself.

Now that the Bush Admin is closing in on the end, who will W. pardon?

I'm thinking Libby, Campeion and Ramos....

Whatcha got?

Campeion and Ramos would be deserving but I doubt he will.

[Lula]

seems palin isn't alone in her unethical behavior.

corruption!! guilty!! bye bye ted stevens!

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081027/ap_ ... vens_trial

lol, i just noticed something, take the 'l' out of palin and it's pain lame i know, but i had to.

[Skylorde]

Assassination plot targeting Obama disrupted

This country will melt down to the fucking ground if he gets assassinated in office.