President Barack Obama - Term 1 and 2 Thread

[Monker]

duplicate msg...with monster long pics.

[Monker]

Since you are Mr. Statistics...find a chart or graph that shows WHY people are no longer seeking employment. How many left the workforce and took retirement, or early retirement? How many are women who married and no longer seeking a career? How many decided to join the military rather then be unemployed? Not really trying to prove a point, just curious...since I *KNOW* more people are retiring then there are people entering the workforce.

And, all these numbers below will start falling in line next year - regardless of who is President. People were making these EXACT SAME ARGUMENTS at the end of Reagan's first term.

Regardless of who is President next year, the economy is recovered. Obama did a fine job of ensuring that.

This is such an ignorant comment. growth is slowing. True unemployment is 11% I don't think any sane person considers anything recovered.

no where near recovered if one looks at the facts...

The US economy grew at a 1.65% pace in the first half of the year and, according to Bloomberg Brief's chief economist Jo Brusuelas, is now tracking at a 1.5% pace of growth. The IMF's dour outlook for the world's economy has been shoulder-shrugged by many but in this compendium of everything you need to know about the US economic outlook but were afraid to ask, Brusuelas provides the facts and nothing but the facts. From slack in the labor markets, to a slowdown in investment and soft household spending, even the Fed's unprecedented QEternity is unlikely to grab us back from the edge of a malaise-like sub-2% consensus forecast for Q4.





Labor Market Slack... (divergent)





Policy Uncertainty... high!





Slower Manufacturing Growth... (accelerating lower...)





and Capex Plunges...

Without positive movement in these areas... there is no recovery.. period.

[Memorex]

Yea. We have a great economy with great jobs available and people are just choosing to retire. ok.

[Monker]

Yea. We have a great economy with great jobs available and people are just choosing to retire. ok.

What are you talking about? The baby boom generation is retiring. That means more people are retiring then entering the workforce. It has been that way since 2007 or so. THAT is a fact.

I can also see a person being in his 60's, being laid off, and retiring early rather then looking for a job. That's opinion, but not unreasonable at all.

It seems to me that both situations are going to add to this statistic of people leaving the workforce...and artificially inflate it.

So, where is the chart that shows WHY people are leaving. I absolutely do NOT believe that they are ALL "working age" people who just gave up looking for a job.

[Rick]

Yea. We have a great economy with great jobs available and people are just choosing to retire. ok.

What are you talking about? The baby boom generation is retiring. That means more people are retiring then entering the workforce. It has been that way since 2007 or so. THAT is a fact.

I can also see a person being in his 60's, being laid off, and retiring early rather then looking for a job. That's opinion, but not unreasonable at all.

It seems to me that both situations are going to add to this statistic of people leaving the workforce...and artificially inflate it.

So, where is the chart that shows WHY people are leaving. I absolutely do NOT believe that they are ALL "working age" people who just gave up looking for a job.

AA offered it's employees and early out package. They gave them something like $25,000 to leave. About 15% of the 10,000 in my work group took it. They were retirement age and decided to leave so that more of the junior people would not be laid off. Our union negotiated a deal that where before 4400 would be laid off, to where now 800 will be.

[AR]

Yea. We have a great economy with great jobs available and people are just choosing to retire. ok.

What are you talking about? The baby boom generation is retiring. That means more people are retiring then entering the workforce. It has been that way since 2007 or so. THAT is a fact.

I can also see a person being in his 60's, being laid off, and retiring early rather then looking for a job. That's opinion, but not unreasonable at all.

It seems to me that both situations are going to add to this statistic of people leaving the workforce...and artificially inflate it.

So, where is the chart that shows WHY people are leaving. I absolutely do NOT believe that they are ALL "working age" people who just gave up looking for a job.

I'm certainly no Obama supporter but Monker makes a valid point here.

[RocknRoll]

Yea. We have a great economy with great jobs available and people are just choosing to retire. ok.

What are you talking about? The baby boom generation is retiring. That means more people are retiring then entering the workforce. It has been that way since 2007 or so. THAT is a fact.

I can also see a person being in his 60's, being laid off, and retiring early rather then looking for a job. That's opinion, but not unreasonable at all.

It seems to me that both situations are going to add to this statistic of people leaving the workforce...and artificially inflate it.

So, where is the chart that shows WHY people are leaving. I absolutely do NOT believe that they are ALL "working age" people who just gave up looking for a job.

I'm certainly no Obama supporter but Monker makes a valid point here.

I think a lot of the Baby Boomers are retiring not because they want to, they just don't have a choice. There retirement dreams are gone, and they're just having to face up the world today. I hope these retirees don't end up on food stamps in their last years

[Memorex]

Anyone choosing to retire early would not be included in the unemployment number.

[Behshad]

Funniest joke of the night at the Al Smith dinner :


Obama: " as you noticed , I was more energetic during the second debate. It's cause I was fully rested after the nap I took.... During the first debate ".

[Rick]

Funniest joke of the night at the Al Smith dinner :


Obama: " as you noticed , I was more energetic during the second debate. It's cause I was fully rested after the nap I took.... During the first debate ".

I was glad to see he woke up. He was much more into it during the second one. Not sure what his MO was on the first one.

[Monker]

Yea. We have a great economy with great jobs available and people are just choosing to retire. ok.

What are you talking about? The baby boom generation is retiring. That means more people are retiring then entering the workforce. It has been that way since 2007 or so. THAT is a fact.

I can also see a person being in his 60's, being laid off, and retiring early rather then looking for a job. That's opinion, but not unreasonable at all.

It seems to me that both situations are going to add to this statistic of people leaving the workforce...and artificially inflate it.

So, where is the chart that shows WHY people are leaving. I absolutely do NOT believe that they are ALL "working age" people who just gave up looking for a job.

I'm certainly no Obama supporter but Monker makes a valid point here.

I think a lot of the Baby Boomers are retiring not because they want to, they just don't have a choice. There retirement dreams are gone, and they're just having to face up the world today. I hope these retirees don't end up on food stamps in their last years

WTF? You're making excuses. The first Baby Boomer came to retirement age in 2011. Since then, more and more have been reaching 65 every DAY. More people retire now then enter the workforce. These are simple statistical FACTS. Geez, this is the REAL reason why Social Security is having issues - the people IN THE WORKFORCE can no longer support the benefits of the people retiring...not because of taxes, there simply TOO MANY retirees and NOT ENOUGH people entering the workforce.

There are some taking early retirement, as Rick pointed out...but the FACT is there are tens of thousands who are AT RETIREMENT age - every month. Those numbers add up quickly.

And, IMO, if you are not getting benefits and are not looking for work, then you SHOULD NOT be counted as 'unemployed'. That's just stupid. Again, this was the EXACT SAME ARGUMENT Democrats used against Reagan in 1983...look at "real" unemployment, to exaggerate the issue.

[Monker]

Anyone choosing to retire early would not be included in the unemployment number.

Correct...they would be counted in the "left the workforce" number.

[Memorex]

For me the funniest Romney line was it was "being brought to you by the letter O and the number 16 trillion."

[Memorex]

They were both funny and very gracious at the end. Wish the whole campaign was like that.

[slucero]

Since you are Mr. Statistics...find a chart or graph that shows WHY people are no longer seeking employment. How many left the workforce and took retirement, or early retirement? How many are women who married and no longer seeking a career? How many decided to join the military rather then be unemployed? Not really trying to prove a point, just curious...since I *KNOW* more people are retiring then there are people entering the workforce.

And, all these numbers below will start falling in line next year - regardless of who is President. People were making these EXACT SAME ARGUMENTS at the end of Reagan's first term.

Wow aren't you the asshole....

I guess that would make you Mr. "My Opinion Is All You Need To Know... Your Facts are Wrong".

Since you are passive-aggressively "not really trying to prove a point, just curious", and since I've already posted some facts.. which disprove your point regarding there being no recession.. and even the ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute), the very institution that The Economist magazine calls: "...the only organization to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm..." has already said we are in a recession right now...

yea... yer right... because you just "KNOW".... here's your chart

....actual and hypothetical change in the employment status of the adult population. The employment-population ratio fell by 4.6 percentage points, of which 4.4 percentage points remain after controlling for demographics. Similarly, 1.6 percentage points (3.7 million people) of the 1.9 percentage point (4.6 million people) decrease in labor force participation remains after controlling for demographic factors. Approximately one-fifth of the drop in labor force participation is due to demographic—not strictly economic—factors. A recent Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago study came to a similar conclusion, finding that demographic factors accounted for one-quarter of the drop in labor force participation between 2008 and 2011 ( http://www.chicagofed.org/digital_asset ... 12_296.pdf )

Please state what you "KNOW".... with something more than just your opinion... you know some empirical data... facts.... because opinions that cannot be factually supported are actually guesses...


Wow us with your knowledge Mr Wizard...

[The Sushi Hunter]

Someone please tell this guy that he is wrong and Romney has already won the whole thing.

Hey Behshad, are you by any chance related to Comical Ali?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yfAeMtcURg0

[The Sushi Hunter]

MATT DRUDGE‏@DRUDGE

The great Candy Crowley did not 'fact check' during debate how O has Investments In Cayman Trust... ... and has bigger pension than Romney!

Romney has could buy and sell the company that will pay Obama's pension and ship the jobs overseas. If he hasn't already.

Well, he's about to ship one job to the unemployment line.

I guess that's why Gallup is saying unemployment is now down to 7.3%

Regardless of who is President next year, the economy is recovered. Obama did a fine job of ensuring that.

This is such an ignorant comment. growth is slowing. True unemployment is 11% I don't think any sane person considers anything recovered.

That's the problem right there, you're discussing this with Monker and Behshad who aren't sane.

[Memorex]

Well, I am not saying Romney is going to improve it either. I honestly don't know what is going to turn this around. Hopefully Congress and the President can work together after the election. Another four years like this and I say we replace every incumbent on any ballot down to dog catcher.

[Memorex]

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/here-are-the-4-surprise-signs-that-obama-could-still-win-the-2012-election/

[conversationpc]

Yea. We have a great economy with great jobs available and people are just choosing to retire. ok.

What are you talking about? The baby boom generation is retiring. That means more people are retiring then entering the workforce. It has been that way since 2007 or so. THAT is a fact.

I can also see a person being in his 60's, being laid off, and retiring early rather then looking for a job. That's opinion, but not unreasonable at all.

It seems to me that both situations are going to add to this statistic of people leaving the workforce...and artificially inflate it.

So, where is the chart that shows WHY people are leaving. I absolutely do NOT believe that they are ALL "working age" people who just gave up looking for a job.

I'm certainly no Obama supporter but Monker makes a valid point here.

Only if you look at the U3 unemployment rate, perhaps. In other words, no, he doesn't have a point. If I remember correctly, the U6 or "real unemployment" rate doesn't count retirees amongst those who've left the workforce but those who are "marginally attached" are, i.e. those who've lost a job and have given up looking for but would like to find a job.

[The Sushi Hunter]

New Developments on Federal Unemployment Extensions
(Updated October 16, 2012)

Updated: Number of individuals who have run out of benefits is now over 891,300.

http://www.edd.ca.gov/Unemployment/Fede ... nsions.htm

And coming to a neighborhood near you. And they aren't coming to work, they're coming to take.

[The Sushi Hunter]

Donald J. Trump✔ @realDonaldTrump

I'll be making a major announcement on President Obama next week--stay tuned!

19 Oct 12 Reply Retweet Favorite

Trump is a white, straight male who was also a very successful businessman in his day. What possibly could he say that would cause a dem to change their vote?

[Monker]

Donald J. Trump✔ @realDonaldTrump

I'll be making a major announcement on President Obama next week--stay tuned!

19 Oct 12 Reply Retweet Favorite

Trump is a white, straight male who was also a very successful businessman in his day. What possibly could he say that would cause a dem to change their vote?

He found a copy of his Muslim birth certificate in Kenya...and it just can't be fake, like the one from Hawaii.

[steveo777]

Donald J. Trump✔ @realDonaldTrump

I'll be making a major announcement on President Obama next week--stay tuned!

19 Oct 12 Reply Retweet Favorite

Trump is a white, straight male who was also a very successful businessman in his day. What possibly could he say that would cause a dem to change their vote?

He found a copy of his Muslim birth certificate in Kenya...and it just can't be fake, like the one from Hawaii.

Can you imagine the world's reaction if this happened, not to mention that he would be immediately arrested. It would be a shock!

[steveo777]

Donald J. Trump✔ @realDonaldTrump

I'll be making a major announcement on President Obama next week--stay tuned!

19 Oct 12 Reply Retweet Favorite

Trump is a white, straight male who was also a very successful businessman in his day. What possibly could he say that would cause a dem to change their vote?

Trump has the wealth to have paid a task force to find whatever dirt necessary to bring the house down. I think he's just blowing smoke

[Monker]

LOL...funny how you quote Gallup ONLY WHEN ROMNEY HAS AN ADVANTAGE. What happened to your Rasmussen addiction? Maybe you got over it when it showed the two dead even.

According to the latest Gallup survey, Mitt Romney is polling 52% of likely voters. At this point in the race he is ahead of:

Where Jimmy Carter was in 1976 (47%)

Where Ronald Reagan was in 1980 (39% -- Carter was six points up)

Where George H.W. Bush was in 1988 (50%)

Where Bill Clinton was in 1992 (40%)

Where George W. Bush was in 2000 (48%)

Where Barack Obama was in 2008 (49%)

[slucero]

Yea. We have a great economy with great jobs available and people are just choosing to retire. ok.

What are you talking about? The baby boom generation is retiring. That means more people are retiring then entering the workforce. It has been that way since 2007 or so. THAT is a fact.

I can also see a person being in his 60's, being laid off, and retiring early rather then looking for a job. That's opinion, but not unreasonable at all.

It seems to me that both situations are going to add to this statistic of people leaving the workforce...and artificially inflate it.

So, where is the chart that shows WHY people are leaving. I absolutely do NOT believe that they are ALL "working age" people who just gave up looking for a job.

I'm certainly no Obama supporter but Monker makes a valid point here.

Only if you look at the U3 unemployment rate, perhaps. In other words, no, he doesn't have a point. If I remember correctly, the U6 or "real unemployment" rate doesn't count retirees amongst those who've left the workforce but those who are "marginally attached" are, i.e. those who've lost a job and have given up looking for but would like to find a job.

From he BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

• U-1:Persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of the civilian labor force
  
• U-2:Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs, as a percent of the civilian labor force
  
• U-3:Total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (official unemployment rate)
  
• U-4:Total unemployed (U-3) plus discouraged workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers
  
• U-5:Total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other persons marginally attached to the labor force, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force
  
• U-6:: Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force

Currently looks like this:





Note U-6 is 14.7%, using the Clinton era measurement it would actually be something like the chart below. (Shadowstats is an economist who has consulted for Fortune 500 companies for the last 30 years)..


The blue line reflects current BLS unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for Shadowstats estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence by the BLS in 1994. That estimate is added to the BLS estimate of U-6 unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers.







kinda scary isn't it?

[Behshad]

A Pennsylvania man employed by a company working for the Republican Party of Virginia was arrested by investigators from the Rockingham County Sheriff’s office on Thursday and charged with destroying voter registration forms.

Colin Small, a 23-year-old resident of Phoenixville, Pa., worked for Pinpoint, a company hired to register voters on behalf of the Republican Party of Virginia. Prosecutors charged him with four counts of destruction of voter registration applications, eight counts of failing to disclose voter registration applications and one count of obstruction of justice.

Rockingham County Sheriff Bryan Hutcheson’s office said there was no indication that the activity was widespread in their jurisdiction and said the conduct “appears to be limited in nature.” His office said there is a possibility that additional charges may be filed.

Hutcheson’s office began investigating after the manager at a Tuesday Morning store in Harrisonburg, Va., allegedly spotted a man on Monday afternoon throwing eight voter registration forms into a dumpster behind the shopping center where he works.

A message left for a spokesman at the Virginia Republican Party was not returned. A man who answered the phone at Pinpoint and only gave his name as Ryan said he was not allowed to comment. “I really want to stay out of it,” he said.

Small’s mugshot is embedded below.

[Behshad]

[Behshad]

Even if youre gonna use the U6, its gone down from 17-18% back in 2010.