UncleKG wrote:Well, since you used such an unbiased and scholarly source as Conservative Review.com
Let's see what MIT has to say:
"(D)rump might say it would be worth the cost since border crossings are out of control. However, because of several factors, including improvements in the Mexican economy and increases in Border Patrol staffing, fewer people are making the attempt. Officers caught 331,000 people crossing the Mexican border in fiscal 2015, less than one-fifth the number in 2000."
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/602494/bad-math-props-up-trumps-border-wall/So, you can't show cause and effect it's the wall that's stopping them. Also, note that MIT expects the cost to be as high as $40 billion, not including maintenance.
Pew Research (who Drump referred to as the organization that supposedly said there were millions of illegal voters, even though they didn't) says this:
"The drop in Mexican emigration to the U.S. during and since the Great Recession has at least three main causes. First, there was a decrease in the number of jobs available in the U.S. to Mexican immigrants, particularly in construction. Second, since the mid-2000s there has been stricter enforcement of immigration laws at the U.S.-Mexico border (with the number of Border Patrol agents now above 17,000) and an increase in the number of deportations of Mexican immigrants. Third, there are demographic changes underway in Mexico that could be affecting would-be immigrants. Today, a declining share of the population in Mexico is made up of people ages 15 to 29 (24.9% in 2014 versus 29.4% in 1990) – and immigrants are more likely to migrate at younger ages, particularly between the ages of 20 and 30 years old. This reflects the decline of the fertility rate in Mexico since the 1970s, which has led to a decades-long process of population aging in Mexico.
As Pew Research Center reported last fall in an analysis of Mexican and U.S. data, migration flows from Mexico had recently reversed for the first time since the 1940s. Between 2009 and 2014, some 870,000 Mexican immigrants arrived in the U.S. while about 1 million left. This change followed on a five-year period of net-zero migration from Mexico after several decades of large inflows of Mexican immigrants into the U.S."
So, we're going to put up a $40 billion wall that will keep more from leaving than are coming in? Makes perfect sense.
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/04/14/mexico-us-border-apprehensions/