by Jonny B » Tue Sep 02, 2014 6:59 am
So here are my predictions for 2014. Insight is welcome, as I've been working long hours and may not have all the facts straight. It's likely you'll know more about your teams then I do.
THE AFC
AFC East
Patriots (14 - 2) (Division Champ)
Jets (10 - 6) (Wild Card)
Bills (7 - 9)
Dolphins (3 - 13)
It's going to take a lot to convince me the Pats won't win. It won't matter who's at QB, or whether or not Brady's arm suddenly gets old, that revamped defense will be one of the best in the NFL. They've got a decent pass rush, and (eventually, after Browner's suspension,) two shutdown corners. It will be very difficult to score points on them....I have more optimism for my Jets now that Smith and/or Vick will have Chris Johnson to hand off to, as well as Eric Decker to throw to. I'm a little worried about their defense this year, as Dee Milliner is their best corner, and now only does he start the season injured, he wasn't really that good as a rookie. They'll give up big plays in the air....Sammy Watkins has yet to impress this preseason due to nagging injuries, and there wasn't much to convince me that E.J. Manuel has improved any. The Bills should hold their own defensively, but I'm guessing 7 wins tops....I feel bad for Ryan Tannehill. He could be a star in this league, and yet the offensive line is still looking like a weakness in spite of some changes. The trenches could make or break the Dolphins' season.
AFC North
Ravens (10 - 6) (Division Champ)
Bengals (10 - 6)
Browns (7 - 9)
Steelers (4 - 12)
The AFC North is a crap shoot. I eventually settled on The Ravens. They lost 5 games by a touchdown or less last year. Their defense has gotten younger, and could very well do just enough to eke out those few extra wins....The Bengals more or less stayed put on their lineup. Andy Dalton will once again put up regular season numbers, but will lose a tiebraker on the wild card and miss the playoffs.... The Browns will stay competitive with what could be the best defense in the division. Problem is, will they score points? Not that I doubt the skills of Hoyer or Manziel, but with Josh Gordon suspended, who do they throw to? ....The Steelers are regressing as a team. Pending suspensions of Blount and Bell won't help things either....Does anyone find it coincidental that the Steelers have steadily declined since Todd Haley forced Rothlisburger to become a pocket passer?
AFC South
Colts (9 - 7) (Division Champ)
Texans (7 - 9)
Jaguars (6 - 10)
Titans (3 - 13)
Could be the weakest division of 2014, and it's Luck's division to lose. The Colts didn't have a very good preseason, but finding even a little bit of last year's form should allow them to walk over a division where the other teams are rebuilding....The Texans will have a scary defense with JJ Watt and Jedaveon Clowney on the front line. But they're delusional if they think Ryan Fitzpatrick is an improvement over Matt Schaub. Have they followed this guy's career at all? He's a career backup who manages to get a starting job every year. You think Schaub's pick-6's were bad? Even with the recent acquisition of Ryan Mallett, who also looked mediocre in preseason, I think I may be overestimating their win total regardless of who's at QB....The Jags finished on a 4 - 4 run to end the season last year, and while I think they will be better this year, they don't really have enough talent to take the next step yet. Blake Bortles showed this preseason he's got the skills to be a stud. Why are they sitting him? ....The Titans could be competing for the #1 draft pick this year. No Chris Johnson, an injury-prone QB in Locker...He could be a winner if he could stay on the field...but very few weapons to speak of, rookie performances pending.
AFC West
Broncos (11 - 5) (Division Champ)
Chargers (10 - 6) (Wild Card)
Chiefs (8 - 8 )
Raiders (4 - 12)
The Broncos are all-in this year, with numerous upgrades on offense and defense. But I think Manning's performance in the Super Bowl was a bad omen. I think he's due for a late-season stumble, where the Chargers could scare them at the end of the season....San Diego are the Cowboys of the AFC, constantly playing well below their talent level. They were a winning playoff team last year in spite of their up and down play. I think they're due to play to their paper talent and make a run for the division, and even though they will fall short, this playoff spot will feel more legit....Alex Smith has won me over. When the Chiefs found new ways to lose on defense, he willed the team into the postseason with an offensive explosion of points and eked out the couple more wins needed for the playoff spot. But he has fewer pieces this year than last. It'll be fun to watch Chiefs games, but I think they'll be on the wrong end of several high-scoring affairs....Oakland is a team full of underachievers and has-beens. Schaub is still terrible, and even though rookie Derek Carr has looked good, I don't think he'll have enough weapons around him to compete in a tough division.
THE NFC
NFC East
Eagles (10 - 6) (Division Champ)
Redskins (8 - 8 )
Giants (5 - 11)
Cowboys (2 - 14)
When the likes of Brady/Manning/Brees retire, one of the torches could very well be passed onto Nick Foles. 24 TD vs. 2 INTs after taking over for Vick. He had a shaky preseason, but I think he'll be a stud for a long time to come. Not having DeSean Jackson could be painful, but they got a major upgrade at RB with the arrival of Darren Sproles, and there isn't really enough competition in the division for a loss of WR to be permanently damaging....This could be the year that determines if RGIII is a long-term starter in this league. Even with DeSean Jackson as a throwing weapon, I feel RGIII's transition to a pocket passer will be rough....Eli Manning is transitioning to a new style of offense. Could be a bad year, but I wouldn't be surprised if he went on another one of his invincible hot streaks. He's due for one....Dallas Cowboys fans will get their wish for a team that doesn't end 8-8....How about the inside track to next year's #1 draft pick? They had little to no pieces on defense to begin with, and the few they did have either left (DeMarcus Ware to Denver) or are injured (Sean Lee, out from an ACL tare.) Last year's defense was historically terrible, but this year's could be worse. If Tony Romo feels he'll have his best season yet, he might be right, if assuming he has a healthy back....he'll be playing from behind a LOT, and will have plenty of opportunities to pad his stats.
NFC North
Lions (9 - 7) (Division Champ)
Packers (8 - 8 )
Bears (8 - 8 )
Vikings (8 - 8 )
All 4 teams of the NFC North have the tools necessary to win this division, with the winner will be determined in the final 2 weeks....The Lions are too talented to not be a playoff team, and I think a new coach in Jim Caldwell is the key to limiting mistakes and getting the most out of the team....Lack of depth are a concern for both the Packers and Bears. Seems like when a few starters end up on the injury list, they both go on a freefall. Their win totals could be +3 or -3, depending on how the starters hold up....The Vikings are set at QB, regardless if it's Cassel or Bridgewater. And you can't count out any team with Adrian Peterson as your RB. Vikings will be competitive this year.
NFC South
Saints (10 - 6) (Division Champ)
Buccaneers (9 - 7) (Wild Card)
Falcons (6 - 10)
Panthers (5 - 11)
It concerns me that the Saints let a third of their offensive production disappear when Darren Sproles signed elsewhere. I give them the benefit of the doubt because of their defense, which greatly improved under Rob Ryan's tenure....The Buccaneers are the sexy pick of 2014. New coach in Lovie Smith, a borderline starting QB in Josh McCown and a capable young QB in Mike Glennon in the wings. A few formidable weapons. I see them making a run for a wild card spot....I find it difficult to believe that the Julio Jones injury was the sole reason why the Falcons went on a freefall last year. They had the worst running game last year, and the defense was inconsistent. Now Tony Gonzalaz is retired, leaving a gaping hole at TE. I don't see how the Falcons will be any better this year....The Panthers let all of Cam Newton's WR's go in the off season. I know they were only ranked 29th in passing, but why intentionally aim for the 32nd passing offense? The defense can compete with any team, but Cam Newton can't do all the scoring by himself.
NFC West
Seahawks (14 - 2) (Division Champ)
Cardinals (11 - 5) (Wild Card)
Rams (8 - 8 )
49ers (8 - 8 )
Before the preseason, I had every team in the NFC West winning at least 10 games. That changed after a rash of injuries....The Seahawks retained the majority of their Super Bowl winning team and are prime for a repeat year....The Cardinals were the best team who didn't make the playoffs last year. There's no reason why they don't get that one extra win needed to secure a playoff berth....The Rams had a fantastic draft and have one of the scariest front-fours in the league. The team stayed competitive last year in spite of not having a capable backup QB. And now, once again, they will be without Sam Bradford, who re-injured his ACL in the preseason....His replacement, Shaun Hill, is capable, with an even .500 record as a starter. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt just because that front 4 will keep them competitive.....Don't you think Kaps is a bit overrated? He couldn't do anything to lift his team when his weapons were injured last year, and now between the injuries and a lengthy suspension to Aldon Smith, I just think it will be too much to overcome in the early part of the season.
AFC Wild Card Week
#3 Colts defeat #6 Chargers
Luck won't be on the Chargers' side, for he plays for the Colts.
#5 Jets defeat #4 Ravens
Evenly matched on defense, with the edge going to the Jets in a low-scoring affair.
AFC Divisional Playoffs
#1 Patriots defeat #5 Jets
Ideally, I'd rather see this as the conference championship, but the seeding and matchups would have to go differently. Patriots will out-Jets the Jets on defense.
#3 Colts defeat #2 Broncos
Another (not-so) stunning Manning early playoff defeat.
AFC Conference Title
#1 Patriots defeat #3 Colts
Better to be skillful or Lucky, or something like that...A stacked Patriots team claims another AFC title.
(I will be running this gag forever. Luck is the coolest QB name ever.)
NFC Wild Card Week
#3 Saints defeat #6 Buccaneers
It's all about the experience and depth, neither are which the Bucs have.
#4 Lions defeat #5 Cardinals
Lions finally play to their talent level and get their first playoff win in 57 years.
NFC Divisional Playoffs
#1 Seahawks defeat #4 Lions
...It will be closer than people think. The last punch landed determines the win.
#2 Eagles defeat #3 Saints
This is why you pay your star players. Sproles gets his revenge as the Eagles run over the Saints.
NFC Conference Title
#1 Seahawks defeat #2 Eagles
The McNabb era was like a JV version of the 90s Bills, for the Eagles went to 5 straight conference title games but only got one Super Bowl appearance, which they also lost. Same thing could happen with the Foles' era, where this starts another similar run of conference title games against several other NFC teams who end up being slightly better year after year.
SUPER BOWL XLIX
#1 Seahawks defeat #1 Patriots
Another attempt at a 4th ring falls short for Brady and co. as the younger, stronger Seahawks repeat as defending champs.
"I once had an understanding that everything would go my way. But now we’ve come too far along for me to hold on to my own beliefs" -- Delain