I'm an attorney. I'm use to working 80 hour weeks in my own law practice. My clients are residential and commercial real estate developers.
My very wealthy clients are no so wealthy anymore and are sitting on millions in real estate they can't sell. The effect on my law practice
has been that I'm now working 30 hour weeks instead, but the upside is that I can spend lots of time on MR and visiting with friends and family
and getting back to the very important things in life. I don't like the economy causing people to lose fortunes and causing people to lose their
jobs, etc., but there is sometimes a silver lining through it all and I'm choosing to see the silver lining instead of feeling freaked out..........
I've cut substantial overhead, cut expenses at home, don't go out to dinner as much, and don't add new additions onto my house and property.
I'm hunkering down bracing for the onslaught that is to come. I agree with everything that was said in this post below. I think we are more at the beginning
of the downturn than working our way through it towards an end. We haven't seen nothin yet.......
1. Wave one of commercial real estate foreclosures and loan failures. Some of the biggest of the big buildings will be foreclosed and those planned but not built will never see daylight. Meanwhile, vacancies skyrocket while budgets are busted with dropping rents. One analyst estimated the New York City Financial district buildings will see 66% occupancies with break even budgets being much higher. You will see some major shopping malls shut down.
2. The second wave of residential foreclosures and loan failures arrives dragging down all real estate values both commercial and residential. They will sink like a rock in over-built states and within those regions previously hit the worst. This is related to the next mortgage failure cycle. Some of those formerly upscale, McMansion subdivisions will turn into ghost towns.
Wave one of auto loan failures containing billions in bank, credit union and auto finance company loans will smash credit markets. The reaction will be stunning and probably stop most vehicle lending temporarily for weeks paralyzing automakers and those lenders still doing car and truck loans.
3. Wave one of several future waves of credit card failures estimated at $40 billion by bank credit analysts will be an April smash. Normally card failures are in the 1-2% range annually. This larger event opens doors for a historic new number of non-payers and delinquents. This cycle is mostly job loss related but most of it is due to overspending by cardholders.
4. (this is the BIGGIE) Wave one of the Credit Default Swaps (CDS) will hit markets like a Tsunami. These failures will be so overpowering, those in charge will be stunned and flabbergasted by the numbers. The figures are so large we cannot even imagine the amounts. One analyst said it was estimated between $500 and $750 Trillion dollars! There is no margin or deposit money on these trades.
To put number 4 into perspective.... the (just passed today) $825Billion stimulus package is roughly ONE PERCENT of the losses that will be incurred when the CDS crap hits Wall Street.
Those of you who think this is just "negative hype" are welcome to your opinions... but I've been advising all my family and friends about this for the last 2 years... and I've been RIGHT.