MR

Posted: **Thu Jun 05, 2008 11:54 pm**

According to Hitsdailydouble and Wal Mart, they project an 80k first week finish...

June 4, 2008

Windy City rockers Disturbed are popular not just in the yeshiva, where they attract a following from lead singer David Draiman’s background as an Orthodox Jew, but apparently on the HITS charts as well.
Mazel tov, guys. The Reprise act’s fourth album, Indestructible, appears to be just that, with one-day retail reports pegging it at a first-week total of 230-250k, which should make it #1 next Tuesday.

The band’s previous two albums, 2005’s double-platinum Ten Thousand Fists, and 2002’s platinum Believe, both debuted at #1.

Weezer’s new self-titled DGC/Interscope release, already dubbed by fans “The Red Album,” will ride a diet of the hit single “Porn and Beans” to a debut in the 150k range, fighting it out with Capitol’s Now 28.

Universal Motown pop R&B songstress Ashanti’s The Declaration looks to be in the 80k range.

Journey is the latest brand name act to go the exclusive Wal-Mart route with their latest, Revelation, the first with new lead singer Arnel Pineda, which should do around 80k as well.

Jewel’s first country album, Perfectly Clear, for Big Machine’s Valory label, in on target for a total of 50k.

The market was pretty much flat vs. last week, down 13% vs. same week last year and now off 11% year-to-date. Anyone know where we can get a tank of black market gas below $4?

Posted: **Thu Jun 05, 2008 11:58 pm**

Wow...80,000 units in the first week is pretty fucking awesome. Blows the doors off of def Leppard (55,000 in their first week) if this prediction is accurate.

Posted: **Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:01 am**

Amazing that they're going to outpace "Lippard" in week 1 tallies.

I was hoping for the best but this is a nice surprise.

Posted: **Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:02 am**

Saint John wrote:Wow...80,000 units in the first week is pretty fucking awesome. Blows the doors off of def Leppard (55,000 in their first week) if this prediction is accurate.

80k CD's...40k 2CD units...

That's why I don't like RIAA math...

Posted: **Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:02 am**

What did The Eagles do?
Something like 200k+ the first week?

later~

Posted: **Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:05 am**

Pelata wrote:
Saint John wrote:Wow...80,000 units in the first week is pretty fucking awesome. Blows the doors off of def Leppard (55,000 in their first week) if this prediction is accurate.

80k CD's...40k 2CD units...

That's why I don't like RIAA math...

If that's the case then Lippard wins.

Posted: **Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:07 am**

NealIsGod wrote:
Pelata wrote:
Saint John wrote:Wow...80,000 units in the first week is pretty fucking awesome. Blows the doors off of def Leppard (55,000 in their first week) if this prediction is accurate.

80k CD's...40k 2CD units...

That's why I don't like RIAA math...

If that's the case then Lippard wins.

Technically, yes...but it's still officially logged as 80k sales for Journey...

Posted: **Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:08 am**

I expect these numbers to fall short of such a prediction. This is very common in this business. tout huge numbers before the week ends, in an effort to give people the misconception of a buzz, in the hopes that people will respond by running to the stores.

I'm not being a naysayer here...I'm just saying that it's quite common to talk overly positive about numbers before hard numbers show up. It's the only time they can do so.

Posted: **Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:09 am**

Arkansas wrote:What did The Eagles do?
Something like 200k+ the first week?

later~

I thought the figure was 760,000 or 380,000 packages.

Posted: **Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:10 am**

Pelata wrote:
NealIsGod wrote:
Pelata wrote:
Saint John wrote:Wow...80,000 units in the first week is pretty fucking awesome. Blows the doors off of def Leppard (55,000 in their first week) if this prediction is accurate.

80k CD's...40k 2CD units...

That's why I don't like RIAA math...

If that's the case then Lippard wins.

Technically, yes...but it's still officially logged as 80k sales for Journey...

So you can double your sales numbers by sticking a CD of re-recorded hits that nobody wants? Brilliant!

Posted: **Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:11 am**

strangegrey wrote:I'm just saying that it's quite common to talk overly positive about numbers before hard numbers show up. It's the only time they can do so.

Still yet, with that taken into consideration these projected sales figures aren't usually too far off the mark... I believe it's not even a 10% +/- margin.
So, I'd still look for sales well over 70k.

Posted: **Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:12 am**

NealIsGod wrote:
Pelata wrote:
NealIsGod wrote:
Pelata wrote:
Saint John wrote:Wow...80,000 units in the first week is pretty fucking awesome. Blows the doors off of def Leppard (55,000 in their first week) if this prediction is accurate.

80k CD's...40k 2CD units...

That's why I don't like RIAA math...

If that's the case then Lippard wins.

Technically, yes...but it's still officially logged as 80k sales for Journey...

So you can double your sales numbers by sticking a CD of re-recorded hits that nobody wants? Brilliant!

RIAA counts number of single CD's in a set as number of sales.

Ex: a 4 CD box set needs to sell 250,000 box units to go Platinum, a 2 CD set needs to sell 500,000 units to go platinum, etc...

Posted: **Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:14 am**

Pelata wrote:
NealIsGod wrote:
Pelata wrote:
NealIsGod wrote:
Pelata wrote:
Saint John wrote:Wow...80,000 units in the first week is pretty fucking awesome. Blows the doors off of def Leppard (55,000 in their first week) if this prediction is accurate.

80k CD's...40k 2CD units...

That's why I don't like RIAA math...

If that's the case then Lippard wins.

Technically, yes...but it's still officially logged as 80k sales for Journey...

So you can double your sales numbers by sticking a CD of re-recorded hits that nobody wants? Brilliant!

RIAA counts number of single CD's in a set as number of sales.

Ex: a 4 CD box set needs to sell 250,000 box units to go Platinum, a 2 CD set needs to sell 500,000 units to go platinum, etc...

So Red13 would have needed 2,500,000 to go Platimum?

Posted: **Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:16 am**

NealIsGod wrote:
Pelata wrote:
NealIsGod wrote:
Pelata wrote:
Saint John wrote:Wow...80,000 units in the first week is pretty fucking awesome. Blows the doors off of def Leppard (55,000 in their first week) if this prediction is accurate.

80k CD's...40k 2CD units...

That's why I don't like RIAA math...

If that's the case then Lippard wins.

Technically, yes...but it's still officially logged as 80k sales for Journey...

So you can double your sales numbers by sticking a CD of re-recorded hits that nobody wants? Brilliant!

I want them. So make your figure 40,001. :lol:

Posted: **Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:17 am**

NealIsGod wrote:
Pelata wrote:
NealIsGod wrote:
Pelata wrote:
NealIsGod wrote:
Pelata wrote:
Saint John wrote:Wow...80,000 units in the first week is pretty fucking awesome. Blows the doors off of def Leppard (55,000 in their first week) if this prediction is accurate.

80k CD's...40k 2CD units...

That's why I don't like RIAA math...

If that's the case then Lippard wins.

Technically, yes...but it's still officially logged as 80k sales for Journey...

So you can double your sales numbers by sticking a CD of re-recorded hits that nobody wants? Brilliant!

RIAA counts number of single CD's in a set as number of sales.

Ex: a 4 CD box set needs to sell 250,000 box units to go Platinum, a 2 CD set needs to sell 500,000 units to go platinum, etc...

So Red13 would have needed 2,500,000 to go Platimum?

Funny...

No, it's still a single CD...1,000,000 = Platinum

Posted: **Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:17 am**

Does the DVD factor in at all? I mean, really there are three discs here.

Btw, I think WM may have gotten the GH they wanted. But the band got the new music they wanted. And honestly, I think the new music will carry the GH, not the other way around.

later~

Posted: **Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:18 am**

Arkansas wrote:Does the DVD factor in at all? I mean, really there are three discs here.

Btw, I think WM may have gotten the GH they wanted. But the band got the new music they wanted. And honestly, I think the new music will carry the GH, not the other way around.

later~

I'm not sure how the DVD factors in, since its technically video...I know that the 2 CD's in that package count as 2 sales, even though they're packaged together.

Posted: **Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:19 am**

Arkansas wrote:Does the DVD factor in at all? I mean, really there are three discs here.

Not in music sales, it's a completely different medium. DVDs do count somehow I believe, though I'm not sure how or where.

Posted: **Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:19 am**

The guys are getting some good marketing. I heard about them this morning on the radio. The classic rock station that never breaks format just showcased Don't Stop Believin' with Arnel. Friends in town are emailing me telling me about the upcoming concert (in Phoenix). They seem surprisingly pervasive. They need to get a Letterman/Tonight show spot, and SNL would set them off!

Posted: **Fri Jun 06, 2008 1:35 am**

[quote="brandonpfn"]The guys are getting some good marketing. I heard about them this morning on the radio. The classic rock station that [i]never[/i] breaks format just showcased Don't Stop Believin' with Arnel. Friends in town are emailing me telling me about the upcoming concert (in Phoenix). They seem surprisingly pervasive. They need to get a Letterman/Tonight show spot, and SNL would set them off![/quote]

I was thinking that too, but when would they do it? They're off to Europe here very shortly, and there have very few days off when they get back to the US. Too many b-2-b IMHO.

Posted: **Fri Jun 06, 2008 3:17 am**

Pelata wrote:
NealIsGod wrote:
Pelata wrote:
NealIsGod wrote:
Pelata wrote:
NealIsGod wrote:
Pelata wrote:
Saint John wrote:Wow...80,000 units in the first week is pretty fucking awesome. Blows the doors off of def Leppard (55,000 in their first week) if this prediction is accurate.

80k CD's...40k 2CD units...

That's why I don't like RIAA math...

If that's the case then Lippard wins.

Technically, yes...but it's still officially logged as 80k sales for Journey...

So you can double your sales numbers by sticking a CD of re-recorded hits that nobody wants? Brilliant!

RIAA counts number of single CD's in a set as number of sales.

Ex: a 4 CD box set needs to sell 250,000 box units to go Platinum, a 2 CD set needs to sell 500,000 units to go platinum, etc...

So Red13 would have needed 2,500,000 to go Platimum?

Funny... No, it's still a single CD...1,000,000 = Platinum

This entire RIAA method of calculation is a joke on its face. The calculation is supposed to reflect the popularity of a release as compared with other releases from other artists. Shouldn't matter how many CD's are contained in a unit. Most people only purchase one unit. The math shouldn't be multiplied by the number of disks contained within. The result is a false inflation of sales figures when a release is referred to as "platinum" and they use that benchmark to bolster the "buzz" on an artist. Such bullshit.

So Pelata, what you're saying is the accurate projection is 40k packages of Revelation will have moved off Walmart shelves at week's end, yes?

Posted: **Fri Jun 06, 2008 3:28 am**

STORY_TELLER wrote:
Pelata wrote:
NealIsGod wrote:
Pelata wrote:
NealIsGod wrote:
Pelata wrote:
NealIsGod wrote:
Pelata wrote:
Saint John wrote:Wow...80,000 units in the first week is pretty fucking awesome. Blows the doors off of def Leppard (55,000 in their first week) if this prediction is accurate.

80k CD's...40k 2CD units...

That's why I don't like RIAA math...

If that's the case then Lippard wins.

Technically, yes...but it's still officially logged as 80k sales for Journey...

So you can double your sales numbers by sticking a CD of re-recorded hits that nobody wants? Brilliant!

RIAA counts number of single CD's in a set as number of sales.

Ex: a 4 CD box set needs to sell 250,000 box units to go Platinum, a 2 CD set needs to sell 500,000 units to go platinum, etc...

So Red13 would have needed 2,500,000 to go Platimum?

Funny... No, it's still a single CD...1,000,000 = Platinum

This entire RIAA method of calculation is a joke on its face. The calculation is supposed to reflect the popularity of a release as compared with other releases from other artists. Shouldn't matter how many CD's are contained in a unit. Most people only purchase one unit. The math shouldn't be multiplied by the number of disks contained within. The result is a false inflation of sales figures when a release is referred to as "platinum" and they use that benchmark to bolster the "buzz" on an artist. Such bullshit.

So Pelata, what you're saying is the accurate projection is 40k packages of Revelation will have moved off Walmart shelves at week's end, yes?

Kinda....I'm saying that someone else is saying that...

RIAA uses fuzzy math...it should reflect number of units sold, regardless of how many CD's are in the package...but it doesn't.

Notice how the report doesn't specify? It just says "150k", "80k"...you're supposed to think that 80k people bought/will buy the package, when in fact 40k did/will...and that's only IF their predictions are correct...could be a little more or less.

In Disturbed's case, 250k people bought a single CD...in Journey's case, 40k people bought a 2CD package.

Posted: **Fri Jun 06, 2008 3:36 am**

Pelata wrote:RIAA uses fuzzy math...it should reflect number of units sold, regardless of how many CD's are in the package...but it doesn't.

Disagree.
Double disc sets generally do and should cost more than singles.
In this case Journey's basically pedaling a triple disc for about the cost of a single, they deserve to have the double package as 2 units moved rule apply.

Posted: **Fri Jun 06, 2008 3:38 am**

Red13JoePa wrote:
Pelata wrote:RIAA uses fuzzy math...it should reflect number of units sold, regardless of how many CD's are in the package...but it doesn't.

Disagree.
Double disc sets generally do and should cost more than singles.
In this case Journey's basically pedaling a triple disc for about the cost of a single, they deserve to have the double package as 2 units moved rule apply.

But people are still making a single purchase of a single package...

But I see what you're saying...

Posted: **Fri Jun 06, 2008 3:40 am**

well we should cut the sales of the perry only Ultimates in half too.

Posted: **Fri Jun 06, 2008 3:40 am**

Arkansas wrote:
Btw, I think WM may have gotten the GH they wanted. But the band got the new music they wanted. And honestly, I think the new music will carry the GH, not the other way around.

later~

Yep, they played the Wal right.

Jcrew FTW, like a sunshowah. :lol:

Posted: **Fri Jun 06, 2008 3:51 am**

Red13JoePa wrote:well we should cut the sales of the perry only Ultimates in half too.

Technically, they are half of what is officially logged in terms of units.

Posted: **Fri Jun 06, 2008 4:27 am**

Hell, even if this album goes "platinum", that's still 500,000 albums which is typically what a gold album would be. That would be pretty good, in my opinion.

Posted: **Fri Jun 06, 2008 4:28 am**

conversationpc wrote:Hell, even if this album goes "platinum", that's still 500,000 albums which is typically what a gold album would be. That would be pretty good, in my opinion.

Agreed.

Does anyone actually think it will move that many copies?

I see it stalling at about 150,000 units (300,000 CD's)...if not sooner...

Posted: **Fri Jun 06, 2008 5:31 am**

Pelata wrote:
Saint John wrote:Wow...80,000 units in the first week is pretty fucking awesome. Blows the doors off of def Leppard (55,000 in their first week) if this prediction is accurate.

80k CD's...40k 2CD units...

That's why I don't like RIAA math...

Except, by the sounds of the article, it is how many "units" are sold first week. 80,000 units equals 160,000 CDs for the RIAA...

MR

"Revelation" should hit 80k (40k units) first week

"Revelation" should hit 80k (40k units) first week