Moderator: Andrew
Where's the oil? Model suggests much may be gone
By CAIN BURDEAU (AP) – 6 hours ago
NEW ORLEANS — For a spill now nearly half the size of Exxon Valdez, the oil from the Deepwater Horizon disaster is pretty hard to pin down.
Satellite images show most of an estimated 4.6 million gallons of oil has pooled in a floating, shape-shifting blob off the Louisiana coast. Some has reached shore as a thin sheen, and gooey bits have washed up as far away as Alabama. But the spill is 23 days old since the Deepwater Horizon exploded April 20 and killed 11 workers, and the thickest stuff hasn't shown up on the coast.
So, where's the oil? Where's it going to end up?
Government scientists and others tracking the spill say much of the oil is lurking just below the surface. But there seems to be no consensus on whether it will arrive in black waves, mostly dissipate into the massive Gulf or gradually settle to the ocean floor, where it could seep into the ecosystem for years.
When it comes to deepwater spills, even top experts rely on some guesswork.
One of their tools, a program the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration uses to predict how oil spills on the surface of water may behave, suggests that more than a third of the oil may already be out of the water.
About 35 percent of a spill the size of the one in the Gulf, consisting of the same light Louisiana crude, released in weather conditions and water temperatures similar to those found in the Gulf now would simply evaporate, according to data that The Associated Press entered into the program.
The model also suggests that virtually all of the benzene — a highly toxic flammable organic chemical compound and one of the chief ingredients in oil — would be stripped off and quickly vaporize.
The model was not designed for deepwater spills like the one at the Macondo well in the Mississippi Canyon now threatening the Gulf Coast. But experts said the analysis might give a close approximation of what is most likely happening where the oil plume is hitting the surface nearly 50 miles south of Louisiana.
The size and nature of the spill also has been altered by response efforts. So far, about 436,000 gallons of chemicals have been sprayed on the oil to break it up into smaller droplets and about 4 million gallons of oily water have been recovered.
Of that recovered mixture, at least 10 percent is oil, BP and NOAA said. Smaller amounts of oil also have been collected after washing ashore, and crews have burned a negligible quantity off the surface.
That would leave as much as 2.7 million gallons at sea as of Friday, with about 210,000 gallons coming up from the well every day.
The 210,000 gallons figure — specifically, about 5,000 barrels — comes from NOAA and has frequently been cited by BP PLC and the Coast Guard. Some scientists have said based on an analysis of BP's video of the leak that the flow rate is much higher, while others have concluded the video is too grainy to draw any such conclusions.
Even with computer models and history as guides, uncertainty reigns.
Doug Helton, the operations coordinator for NOAA's Office of Response and Restoration, said the agency was uncertain how much oil would sink to the bottom. For now, most of it is near the surface.
"This oil is coming from the sea floor and coming up to the surface in droplets and then once it comes to the surface it re-coelesces as a slick," he said.
Ed Overton, a Louisiana State University chemist who's analyzed the spill for NOAA, said he thinks most of the oil is within a foot of the surface.
"Ultimately, you could have a lot of oil on the shoreline. It won't be a black tide coming in, it will be globs coming ashore," he said.
"It's going to be a long, slow summer."
Wilma Subra, a chemist and MacArthur Fellow affiliated with the Louisiana Environmental Action Network, said there was a risk that the effort to break up the oil with dispersants would simply sweep it to the ocean bottom and contaminate the food chain, a possibility that has shrimpers on edge.
Merv Fingas, who has studied oil spills for 35 years and has worked for Environment Canada, that nation's environmental agency, predicted a bit of both: some would wash up, and some would stick to sediment and mud and sink slowly to the bottom, much of it likely settling near the spewing well.
"That's the fate of a lot of oil spills: sedimentation on the bottom," Fingas said.
Overton disagreed, saying the oil from the Deepwater Horizon spill is too light to sink all the way.
A common refrain among experts and officials is that every oil spill is unique.
Larry McKinney, director of the Harte Research Institute for Gulf of Mexico Studies at Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi, said the Deepwater Horizon spill reminds him of the last catastrophic oil flood in the Gulf.
In 1979, Mexico's Ixtoc I in the western Gulf blew out and spewed about 420,000 gallons of oil a day for nine months. Large quantities of oil did not reach Texas beaches.
"This was a problem we ran into with Ixtoc, we never found the oil," McKinney said. "But I think even today if you dig down in some sandy beaches you can find a layer of Ixtoc oil."
Blueskies wrote:Pictures speak a 1000 words.....
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld ... .htmlstory
Arkansas wrote:Blueskies wrote:Pictures speak a 1000 words.....
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld ... .htmlstory
Is that guy in the boat using electric or some other non-petroleum fueled engines? What about the helicopter?
Seems there's a little irony everywhere, no?
later~
Blueskies wrote:There's an oil refinery on fire right now in Houston.
G.I.Jim wrote:Blueskies wrote:There's an oil refinery on fire right now in Houston.
That's it... I won't stand for this shit anymore. I'm walking to work from this day forward. I won't let another dead dinosaur or plant suffer by my use of fossil fuels. Sure I work 35 miles from home, but if I get an early start I should be able to make it on time. I'm gonna hate the days I have to take my son to school though!![]()
You ll have to scrap that fuckin new truck you ll ole lady let you buyG.I.Jim wrote:Blueskies wrote:There's an oil refinery on fire right now in Houston.
That's it... I won't stand for this shit anymore. I'm walking to work from this day forward. I won't let another dead dinosaur or plant suffer by my use of fossil fuels. Sure I work 35 miles from home, but if I get an early start I should be able to make it on time. I'm gonna hate the days I have to take my son to school though!![]()
stevew2 wrote:You ll have to scrap that fuckin new truck you ll ole lady let you buyG.I.Jim wrote:Blueskies wrote:There's an oil refinery on fire right now in Houston.
That's it... I won't stand for this shit anymore. I'm walking to work from this day forward. I won't let another dead dinosaur or plant suffer by my use of fossil fuels. Sure I work 35 miles from home, but if I get an early start I should be able to make it on time. I'm gonna hate the days I have to take my son to school though!![]()
If you say so Sarge, I was being kind and not calling her old Captn NumbnutsG.I.Jim wrote:stevew2 wrote:You ll have to scrap that fuckin new truck you ll ole lady let you buyG.I.Jim wrote:Blueskies wrote:There's an oil refinery on fire right now in Houston.
That's it... I won't stand for this shit anymore. I'm walking to work from this day forward. I won't let another dead dinosaur or plant suffer by my use of fossil fuels. Sure I work 35 miles from home, but if I get an early start I should be able to make it on time. I'm gonna hate the days I have to take my son to school though!![]()
Steve... even with spell check you fuck it up!![]()
![]()
And my "ole lady" didn't "let" me buy anything.
She permitted it.
stevew2 wrote:If you say so Sarge, I was being kind and not calling her old Captn NumbnutsG.I.Jim wrote:stevew2 wrote:You ll have to scrap that fuckin new truck you ll ole lady let you buyG.I.Jim wrote:Blueskies wrote:There's an oil refinery on fire right now in Houston.
That's it... I won't stand for this shit anymore. I'm walking to work from this day forward. I won't let another dead dinosaur or plant suffer by my use of fossil fuels. Sure I work 35 miles from home, but if I get an early start I should be able to make it on time. I'm gonna hate the days I have to take my son to school though!![]()
Steve... even with spell check you fuck it up!![]()
![]()
And my "ole lady" didn't "let" me buy anything.
She permitted it.
stevew2 wrote:They should just put a concrete wall all along the Gulf Coast, and just call the BP sesspole, hopefully that shit wont head up the east coast when it gets to Florida, There wont be a Bp station open when that shit happens,thats really fucked up and it gets less than 90 seconds airplay on the news that I saw on TV.
I agree it is much worse than the media is saying, and it is still going on .They got a little tube siphoning maybe 25 % with is bullshit,they dont know what to do, this will be worse than the Exxon Vandalize cause it is right in the gulf,and once it hits Florida, all the rich bastards will be bitchin,thats when you will really hear it on the news. What a major fuck up.Blueskies wrote:stevew2 wrote:They should just put a concrete wall all along the Gulf Coast, and just call the BP sesspole, hopefully that shit wont head up the east coast when it gets to Florida, There wont be a Bp station open when that shit happens,thats really fucked up and it gets less than 90 seconds airplay on the news that I saw on TV.
This is a very serious situation. I know that a lot of people are outraged about it and more are beginning to be the more that the realities of how much damage this can end up becoming in so many ways is learned. I have lived by the ocean, use to go kayaking almost daily in the Gulf, have went scuba diving in the Gulf and spent many vacations along it in many areas of Florida including the panhandle, Biloxi and been to New Orleans and the surrounding area a few times. My sons and I also did volunteer work on the Florida Gulf coastline walking for miles cleaning up the beaches and putting protective cover over sea turtle nests.
My point in saying this is that as soon as the oil rig explosion happened I knew what kind of damage it will cause. I think that anyone who has lived by and spent time in and/or on the Gulf waters..or any ocean water anywhere, for that matter, has a greater understanding of how really fragile the ecosystem is and how Mother Nature keeps a precarious balance of things to begin with, even without mankinds interference. So yes, this should be...has to be, talked about more so that everyone comes to understand whats really going on and how it will end up affecting everyone, not just the sea life. Everything's connected and when one things affected it affects the next and the next and the next. Beside's all the damage already caused...if this gets in the Gulf stream, as it seems to already have...it will be swept up along the East coast and continue on to Britain and who knows where else. If a hurricane strikes the Gulf it will stir it up even further.
G.I.Jim wrote:stevew2 wrote:You ll have to scrap that fuckin new truck you ll ole lady let you buyG.I.Jim wrote:Blueskies wrote:There's an oil refinery on fire right now in Houston.
That's it... I won't stand for this shit anymore. I'm walking to work from this day forward. I won't let another dead dinosaur or plant suffer by my use of fossil fuels. Sure I work 35 miles from home, but if I get an early start I should be able to make it on time. I'm gonna hate the days I have to take my son to school though!![]()
Steve... even with spell check you fuck it up!![]()
![]()
And my "ole lady" didn't "let" me buy anything.
She permitted it.
stevew2 wrote:I agree it is much worse than the media is saying, and it is still going on .They got a little tube siphoning maybe 25 % with is bullshit,they dont know what to do, this will be worse than the Exxon Vandalize cause it is right in the gulf,and once it hits Florida, all the rich bastards will be bitchin,thats when you will really hear it on the news. What a major fuck up.Blueskies wrote:stevew2 wrote:They should just put a concrete wall all along the Gulf Coast, and just call the BP sesspole, hopefully that shit wont head up the east coast when it gets to Florida, There wont be a Bp station open when that shit happens,thats really fucked up and it gets less than 90 seconds airplay on the news that I saw on TV.
This is a very serious situation. I know that a lot of people are outraged about it and more are beginning to be the more that the realities of how much damage this can end up becoming in so many ways is learned. I have lived by the ocean, use to go kayaking almost daily in the Gulf, have went scuba diving in the Gulf and spent many vacations along it in many areas of Florida including the panhandle, Biloxi and been to New Orleans and the surrounding area a few times. My sons and I also did volunteer work on the Florida Gulf coastline walking for miles cleaning up the beaches and putting protective cover over sea turtle nests.
My point in saying this is that as soon as the oil rig explosion happened I knew what kind of damage it will cause. I think that anyone who has lived by and spent time in and/or on the Gulf waters..or any ocean water anywhere, for that matter, has a greater understanding of how really fragile the ecosystem is and how Mother Nature keeps a precarious balance of things to begin with, even without mankinds interference. So yes, this should be...has to be, talked about more so that everyone comes to understand whats really going on and how it will end up affecting everyone, not just the sea life. Everything's connected and when one things affected it affects the next and the next and the next. Beside's all the damage already caused...if this gets in the Gulf stream, as it seems to already have...it will be swept up along the East coast and continue on to Britain and who knows where else. If a hurricane strikes the Gulf it will stir it up even further.
Yeh You got sarge ,then you got "the General "Babyblue wrote:G.I.Jim wrote:stevew2 wrote:You ll have to scrap that fuckin new truck you ll ole lady let you buyG.I.Jim wrote:Blueskies wrote:There's an oil refinery on fire right now in Houston.
That's it... I won't stand for this shit anymore. I'm walking to work from this day forward. I won't let another dead dinosaur or plant suffer by my use of fossil fuels. Sure I work 35 miles from home, but if I get an early start I should be able to make it on time. I'm gonna hate the days I have to take my son to school though!![]()
Steve... even with spell check you fuck it up!![]()
![]()
And my "ole lady" didn't "let" me buy anything.
She permitted it.
It's the samething anyway you look at it.Good one SteveW2![]()
Saint John wrote:Aside from the local economic woes, this really isn't that big of a deal. This amount of oil is like a drop in the bucket, relative to the size of the ocean.
Blueskies wrote:Saint John wrote:Aside from the local economic woes, this really isn't that big of a deal. This amount of oil is like a drop in the bucket, relative to the size of the ocean.
Tell that to the already endangered sea turtles trying to swim through the stuff. Thats just one example of effect but if you'd like one more personal to you then how about the seafood, oil and petrol costs increasing across the board, as what usually happens after a loss in one area of the chain occurs. The Gulf, especially the area where the spill started is a main breeding area, even referred to the nursery of the Gulf. How about the damage done to the land and plant life when it hits shores.....and especially when it gets into the marshes which are breeding grounds for sea and other wildlife. If wind's shift or a storm occurs then it will be spread even further inland and up the Mississippi River affecting even more communities....as it will as it travels through the Gulf stream... the effects will be even more wide reaching.
Ah heck, I could give more and more examples of how this is a big deal but I doubt it would make a bit of difference in your opinion. If you would read more articles, view pictures and videos...If you were to travel to the area of the main spill and see for yourself, then maybe you will get a better understanding. I remember once here on this forum (when I was still in Florida and mentioned I was going crabbing in a post) you said you use to go crabbing and fishing a lot...with your Grandfather or father, you said.....so I'm surprised, having spent some time around water, that you wouldn't have a better understanding now of how the oil spill will affect things for a long time.![]()
Yes, the ocean is vast but sea life congregates in certain areas to breed and feed. Thousands of gallons continually pumping into the water is much more than a drop and then being spread by the Gulf stream to the Atlantic as well....makes it an even bigger "deal" than it already is. Oil and water don't mix...oil and wildlife don't mix...oil and plant life don't mix. As I've said..all things are connected and what affects one affects another....maybe it will take a good deal of time for some to see how this will affect them personally but it will eventually in one way or another. Besides...we should look outside ourselves and have concern for how it affects others and other things in the immediate...it's a smaller world than you think.
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