RPM wrote:9/29/20. D-Day. I wonder if this will be the most watched debate ever. So much at stake with a looming justice pick.
Biden historically has been a pretty good debater, he always has A gaffe in there but overall has done well.
Trump has trounced in the debates, his anti politically correct style has worked very well. It’s why he shot thru
16 challengers to secure the nomination in 2016. Without the pandemic happening this is no contest, but it’s still here.
How people view these debates will be a huge difference maker. I honestly can’t name one person who is excited about biden. Yet I drive thru Michigan & Wisconsin and Trump support is obvious. There is a Rally here in Schaumburg that will draw big crowds Even though Illinois is a lost cause (in more ways than one) so where is the love for joe? If he does well in the debates that Could start to fire people up. If he fumbles the undecided will turn on him. Can’t wait to see it unfold.
This is what I mean when I say you do not understand how far behind Trump really is.
In Wisconsin the RCP Average has Biden at 50.1% and Trump at 43.4%. That means that even if Trump takes ALL of the remaining undecided voters, he still loses because Biden is above 50%. Wisconsin is basically a lot cause as well.
In Michigan, the RCP Average has Biden at 47.8 and Trump at 43.0. On the surface, that looks close. But, Biden needs only 3.2% to be in the same position as he is in Wi....and Trump needs 7%. and they are fighting over less than 10% undecided voters. That puts Biden at a huge advantage.
As time goes on, it gets harder and harder for Trump to catch up because more of the electorate is committed.
As for the debates, Trump, and people like you, have presented Biden as "sleepy Joe" who needs to read from a teleprompter to make any sense. He is old and senile and can't perform. All Biden has to do is show up and be coherent and he wins. This is the exact position Trump was in four years ago...his debate performances against Clinton were bad, but people gave him a pass so he won. Biden does not need to blow Trump away to win...but if he does, it's over because, IMO, more independents who have not committed are going to flock to him. What you are not considering is around 90% of the electorate is now committed. For Trump to win , he needs to get 70% or so to vote for him....that is very unlikely. Biden could narrowly lose the debates and still win the election.