MR

Ok, this is a follow up to my last post.

Predictions of up to 8yrs into the future are BS guesswork. No, that's not an opinion. It is fact.

First I will post this link. I've shared this opinion for a very, very long time but only recently read this. When I read it, I was surprised how closely it matches my opinion. It was written almost ten years ago but it still rings true today:

http://www.crichton-official.com/speech ... ulate.html

I am going to borrow some things from this link...but not everything.

Recently, I have read, repeatedly, all of the affects the Health Care bill is going to have. It's going to bankrupt us. We will have no choice but to sign up for the government program. Taxes will go up. And, the loony radical view : It is the start of a Marxist trend that will take over the country.

Stretching our vision out six to eight years and predicting such things is pure folly. Oh, sure, you may think there are certain 'facts' that make it predictable...but it's not. NOTHING is...especially something this complicated. Take the weather...it may be possible to take all 'facts' into consideration and predict what the weather will be like in a few hours, or tomorrow. But, when you go beyond that, there are too many unpredictable factors that enter into the equations and the further out in time you go, the more inaccurate that prediction becomes. Even with the best technology, predicting the weather for next week is guesswork. Sure, it's an educated guess...but it's definitely not certain.

This has been proven time and time again in politics. You can be certain that a guess is coming when somebody starts saying, "Six years from now things are going to be like..." Well, they can insist all they want, but they are still just guessing.

The first example that came to my mind was minimum wage increases. Every single time that an increase is proposed, the conservatives start whining. It's going to cause job cuts. It's going to cause inflation. Business has to compensate for it somehow and it will destroy the economy and cause a recession. Every single time, there have been the exact same predictions. Every single time there have been no affects at all...certainly not the doom and gloom that was predicted.

Predicting such things is folly. Insisting you can and you are right, is an exaggeration and a lie. You don't know. You can't know. It's impossible to predict with any degree of accuracy how the Health Care bill will affect this country 6-8 years from now...negatively, or positive. There could be a huge surge in the economy, as there was in the Clinton years, and it could be MUCH better then expected. Or, the opposite could happen and another recession. There could be more amendments and more changes. We simply DO NOT KNOW.

When you turn on your TV and watch whatever news program you like and someone gets on there and starts telling you the affects of this will be such and such in six years, well, they are doing their job and getting paid for it. It doesn't mean they are in the right. It doesn't mean they have some special ability or knowledge that others don't. It just means that person is the most engaging, ratings gathering, person that particular news program could afford to put on air and spout their opinions.

Now, it is your choice. You can believe the pundits and "experts" in the media have some prophetic, Nostradamus like, ability. Or, you can see that it is impossible to see the affects of things that far into the future. It is your choice.

The sad thing is that most people will choose to believe in Nostradamus then to question his abilities. They will forget the %50 of the predictions he got wrong....and remember the %50 he got lucky with, and forget that flipping a coin has just as good of odds of getting the prediction right. Chance is just a good of a prediction because predicting the future like this is inaccurate and IMPOSSIBLE.

Gnite. *yawn*

Monker wrote:Ok, this is a follow up to my last post.

Predictions of up to 8yrs into the future are BS guesswork. No, that's not an opinion. It is fact.

First I will post this link. I've shared this opinion for a very, very long time but only recently read this. When I read it, I was surprised how closely it matches my opinion. It was written almost ten years ago but it still rings true today:

http://www.crichton-official.com/speech ... ulate.html

I am going to borrow some things from this link...but not everything.

Recently, I have read, repeatedly, all of the affects the Health Care bill is going to have. It's going to bankrupt us. We will have no choice but to sign up for the government program. Taxes will go up. And, the loony radical view : It is the start of a Marxist trend that will take over the country.

Stretching our vision out six to eight years and predicting such things is pure folly. Oh, sure, you may think there are certain 'facts' that make it predictable...but it's not. NOTHING is...especially something this complicated. Take the weather...it may be possible to take all 'facts' into consideration and predict what the weather will be like in a few hours, or tomorrow. But, when you go beyond that, there are too many unpredictable factors that enter into the equations and the further out in time you go, the more inaccurate that prediction becomes. Even with the best technology, predicting the weather for next week is guesswork. Sure, it's an educated guess...but it's definitely not certain.

This has been proven time and time again in politics. You can be certain that a guess is coming when somebody starts saying, "Six years from now things are going to be like..." Well, they can insist all they want, but they are still just guessing.

The first example that came to my mind was minimum wage increases. Every single time that an increase is proposed, the conservatives start whining. It's going to cause job cuts. It's going to cause inflation. Business has to compensate for it somehow and it will destroy the economy and cause a recession. Every single time, there have been the exact same predictions. Every single time there have been no affects at all...certainly not the doom and gloom that was predicted.

Predicting such things is folly. Insisting you can and you are right, is an exaggeration and a lie. You don't know. You can't know. It's impossible to predict with any degree of accuracy how the Health Care bill will affect this country 6-8 years from now...negatively, or positive. There could be a huge surge in the economy, as there was in the Clinton years, and it could be MUCH better then expected. Or, the opposite could happen and another recession. There could be more amendments and more changes. We simply DO NOT KNOW.

When you turn on your TV and watch whatever news program you like and someone gets on there and starts telling you the affects of this will be such and such in six years, well, they are doing their job and getting paid for it. It doesn't mean they are in the right. It doesn't mean they have some special ability or knowledge that others don't. It just means that person is the most engaging, ratings gathering, person that particular news program could afford to put on air and spout their opinions.

Now, it is your choice. You can believe the pundits and "experts" in the media have some prophetic, Nostradamus like, ability. Or, you can see that it is impossible to see the affects of things that far into the future. It is your choice.

The sad thing is that most people will choose to believe in Nostradamus then to question his abilities. They will forget the %50 of the predictions he got wrong....and remember the %50 he got lucky with, and forget that flipping a coin has just as good of odds of getting the prediction right. Chance is just a good of a prediction because predicting the future like this is inaccurate and IMPOSSIBLE.

What the Hell has gotten into you? That's two excellent pieces in a single day.

I may not know much, and in fact I absolutely do not, but I do know Neal has wonderful hair, especially when his curls are alive and bouncy. WOOT WOOT.

But even more so, Ross Valory fucking rocks the bass hard! Slap it Rosster, slap it you bass playing mofo!

Rockindeano wrote:What the Hell has gotten into you? That's two excellent pieces in a single day.

I may not know much, and in fact I absolutely do not, but I do know Neal has wonderful hair, especially when his curls are alive and bouncy. WOOT WOOT.

But even more so, Ross Valory fucking rocks the bass hard! Slap it Rosster, slap it you bass playing mofo!

Way to derail a perfectly good thread, brain of a bird.

stevew2 wrote:are you turning gay??{while taking a piss?}

No, not at all stevew, I was just recently chastised for my unfair and hurting remarks to one Neal Schon, so I have rethought my position and determined I was wrong. So I feel it important to make amends for my recent transgressions and start lobbying Neal and Ross some much deserved love.

Schon/Valory in 2010. Gotta love Neal's hair.

Back to your regular scheduled thread. Sorry Monker.

Monker, with all due respect..........there are so many threads on this subject it is getting old. We will all see what it will do in seven years. I am not predicting too much in the future, but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to know it is not affordable right now.

Good luck in your 7 year itch. I am tired of it all and someone else will have to scratch it. I will just try to survive it one day at a time.

artist4perry wrote:Monker, with all due respect..........there are so many threads on this subject it is getting old. We will all see what it will do in seven years. I am not predicting too much in the future, but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to know it is not affordable right now.

I'll argue until I'm dead, and that's a promise.

but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to know it is not affordable right now.

Well Ginger, there are two answers for this statement.

1) The Law will pay for itself, if everything goes as it's supposed to. In fact, the CBO says that after ten years, the cost will be 938B dollars and a savings over the ten years marked as 143B dollars. I know the Cons will fly in here and refute this with the CBO numbers and even say it's bullshit, but technically, saving money -that's the plan.

2) Another way to answer your question is, "We can't afford NOT to do this."

I can and will argue this until the cows come home.

Ginger, have you seen Neal's hair? My God, the curls he has going on are ridiculously cute! I have to message him on FB and tell him to keep that look!

Rockindeano wrote:

artist4perry wrote:Monker, with all due respect..........there are so many threads on this subject it is getting old. We will all see what it will do in seven years. I am not predicting too much in the future, but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to know it is not affordable right now.

I'll argue until I'm dead, and that's a promise.

but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to know it is not affordable right now.

Well Ginger, there are two answers for this statement.

1) The Law will pay for itself, if everything goes as it's supposed to. In fact, the CBO says that after ten years, the cost will be 938B dollars and a savings over the ten years marked as 143B dollars. I know the Cons will fly in here and refute this with the CBO numbers and even say it's bullshit, but technically, saving money -that's the plan.

2) Another way to answer your question is, "We can't afford NOT to do this."

I can and will argue this until the cows come home.

Ginger, have you seen Neal's hair? My God, the curls he has going on are ridiculously cute! I have to message him on FB and tell him to keep that look!

Deano, I hope for our countries sake your right. But I just don't see it going that direction.
Regardless if I agree with you on anything here, know that I like you as a person. I don't have to agree with anyone on this forum to have respect for them.
Having that said, have you seen Neal's cute puppy pics on FB? LOL! Your scaring me you know that?

Too many late night burritos or what?

artist4perry wrote:Having that said, have you seen Neal's cute puppy pics on FB? LOL! Your scaring me you know that?

Too many late night burritos or what?

LOL, no. I just really haven't noticed the new "bounce" he is getting from his hair until recently. Maybe he is using new conditioner? I like Aussie volume control conditioner. Maybe I should tweet Neal and ask if he needs me to pick him up some at the store on the way over to the show? hehehehe. But yes, he does have gorgeous hair and people are right, the curls are fantastic!

Night night, kiss kiss.

Rockindeano wrote:

artist4perry wrote:Having that said, have you seen Neal's cute puppy pics on FB? LOL! Your scaring me you know that?

Too many late night burritos or what?

LOL, no. I just really haven't noticed the new "bounce" he is getting from his hair until recently. Maybe he is using new conditioner? I like Aussie volume control conditioner. Maybe I should tweet Neal and ask if he needs me to pick him up some at the store on the way over to the show? hehehehe. But yes, he does have gorgeous hair and people are right, the curls are fantastic!

Night night, kiss kiss.

Sugar, lay off the stuff floating in the toilet tank.

Rockindeano wrote:

stevew2 wrote:are you turning gay??{while taking a piss?}

No, not at all stevew, I was just recently chastised for my unfair and hurting remarks to one Neal Schon, so I have rethought my position and determined I was wrong. So I feel it important to make amends for my recent transgressions and start lobbying Neal and Ross some much deserved love.

Schon/Valory in 2010. Gotta love Neal's hair.

Back to your regular scheduled thread. Sorry Monker.

What happened to you Dean? You sound like you got run over by Cheech and Chong's bus.

There's already a thread for this...Move it there and it may get some attention.

conversationpc wrote:There's already a thread for this...Move it there and it may get some attention.

I'm with ^^^^ gag and nausea!!
This just proves the supporters know as much as the non-supporters!!

will be up in costs from 940billion dollars to at lesat 3 trillion dollars... the fine once a puny 350.00 or whatever it is now will somehow sky rocket to 1000.00 PLUS 25% interest for the years 2010-2016... that you did not cover yourself...

AND ABBA will perfom a one off concert somewhere in the world in the next 6 years...
Perry will rejoin Journey by 2016 for a retirement tour... after the induction at the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame...

which event will come true first???

Will still suck !

artist4perry wrote:Monker, with all due respect..........there are so many threads on this subject it is getting old. We will all see what it will do in seven years. I am not predicting too much in the future, but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to know it is not affordable right now.

You do realize that the GOP spent the first six years of the Dubbya Administration racking up record debts - including two recessions - and forcing debt- and defecit- financed legislation through Congress and the House via reconciliation (i.e. the very thing Republicans are attacking the Democrats for right now). This one will, at least in theory (and according to the non-partisan CBO, which probably knows a hell of a lot more about economics than anyone on this board), reduce the defecit and HELP PEOPLE. Hell, Bush NEVER INCLUDED THE TWO WARS in his annual budgets (unlike Obama, which is why the REAL defecit looks worse under the current Administration).

I don't understand how the GOP gets away with ruining the economy and forcing through bills that cannot be paid for, and yet are still able to criticize.

conversationpc wrote:There's already a thread for this...Move it there and it may get some attention.

Agreed i am so sick and tired of this crap.

Rockindeano wrote:if everything goes as it's supposed to

Never has, never will.