MR

trekman wrote:This isnt the first video Ive seen that talks about this. And Im not talking about Glenn Beck. The America we knew as children is gone. Our government has failed us. We will NOT get out of this. Are you prepared, Im not. I wont be.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VtVbUmcQSuk

Andrew wrote:I was just discussing this the other day. America's financial situation is crippling MY business and I'm just small fry.

My earnings/income is in US dollars. America is just printing money to keep up, making the value of the dollar outside the USA next to nothing. So now when I earn 1USD, instead of getting $1.60 Australian for that dollar I now get .94cents. Yep...

How many others could take a pay cut like that without bleeding?

The US national debut is 14 trillion dollars. And cutting spenfing by 4 trillion will take 12 years. So I guess I'm fucked for a while yet.

This video is scary as hell. Where does the cash go? How long can anyone, let alone a country survive and try and prosper with that hanging over them?

Yikes.

Since the 1980s, a culture of debt has arisen in the United States. That change was the consequence of a misguided trade policy that gave rise to a current account deficit of unprecedented size. Between 1982 and 2008, the United States imported $7.4 trillion more than it exported. It financed the shortfall on credit. That credit transformed the structure of the US economy.

Every country’s balance of payments must balance. Thus, between 1982 and 2008, $7.4 trillion in foreign capital entered the United States to finance that deficit. That amount was considerably more than the entire amount of US government debt held by the public at the end of 2008, $5.8 trillion. As the money flowed in, it created a credit-fuelled economic bubble—just as foreign capital inflows blew Latin America into an economic bubble in the 1970s and the Asian crisis countries into economic bubbles in the 1990s.

In the process, the structure of the US economy changed. The manufacturing sector was decimated when exposed to ultra-low-wage foreign competition, while the service sector came to dominate the economy and employment as credit-driven asset price inflation created the wealth that made many of those services profitable.

Consequently, over less than three decades, as the US trade deficit grew to previously unimaginable levels, the country’s economic growth model became one of credit-financed consumption that depended on ever-increasing amounts of credit each year to sustain it. In 2008, when the private sector could no longer bear the burden of so much debt, that economic paradigm collapsed.

That paradigm of debt-fuelled consumption can never be resuscitated. The US economy is now on government-funded life support that cannot be paid for over the long run. The limited nature of government resources makes it inevitable that a new economic paradigm will emerge over the next five to ten years. The future of the United States—and the rest of the world—will be determined by the form that new paradigm takes.

S2M wrote:

trekman wrote:This isnt the first video Ive seen that talks about this. And Im not talking about Glenn Beck. The America we knew as children is gone. Our government has failed us. We will NOT get out of this. Are you prepared, Im not. I wont be.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VtVbUmcQSuk

Here's another one....if you have an extra 29:55 to spend watching....

The American Dream
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPWH5TlbloU

slucero wrote:All the talking heads talk about "Debt to GDP".... which is very imprecise and misleading...

"Debt to Revenue" is a far better estimation

Saint John wrote:The American dream is alive and well. It's not exactly what it was 10, 20 or 50 years ago, but it's still alive and well. Many of my friends are living it and I'm close to realizing it, too. Just work hard, save harder and invest wisely.

WTF Is Wrong With Our Government?

S2M wrote:

Saint John wrote:The American dream is alive and well. It's not exactly what it was 10, 20 or 50 years ago, but it's still alive and well. Many of my friends are living it and I'm close to realizing it, too. Just work hard, save harder and invest wisely.

True. But for what % of the people? 87 Stars have to align. I'm glad you and your friends(I bet they are rewpublicans) are doing well. But for 99% of the country the dream died years ago....

Andrew wrote:I was just discussing this the other day. America's financial situation is crippling MY business and I'm just small fry.

My earnings/income is in US dollars. America is just printing money to keep up, making the value of the dollar outside the USA next to nothing. So now when I earn 1USD, instead of getting $1.60 Australian for that dollar I now get .94cents. Yep...

How many others could take a pay cut like that without bleeding?

The US national debut is 14 trillion dollars. And cutting spenfing by 4 trillion will take 12 years. So I guess I'm fucked for a while yet.

This video is scary as hell. Where does the cash go? How long can anyone, let alone a country survive and try and prosper with that hanging over them?

Yikes.

I think 80% of people know HOW to do, but just choose to spend their money in bars, on new cars, gadgets, music, gambling, tattoos, eating out, cigarettes, and other shit they don't need or can't afford. 80% know how, but only about 5% actually DO.

Pelata wrote:

I think 80% of people know HOW to do, but just choose to spend their money in bars, on new cars, gadgets, music, gambling, tattoos, eating out, cigarettes, and other shit they don't need or can't afford. 80% know how, but only about 5% actually DO.

Very true...

Saint John wrote:

S2M wrote:

Saint John wrote:The American dream is alive and well. It's not exactly what it was 10, 20 or 50 years ago, but it's still alive and well. Many of my friends are living it and I'm close to realizing it, too. Just work hard, save harder and invest wisely.

True. But for what % of the people? 87 Stars have to align. I'm glad you and your friends(I bet they are rewpublicans) are doing well. But for 99% of the country the dream died years ago....

I'd say that my core of 10-15 really good friends are 50-50 Dem/Repub. The dream is alive and well for, in my estimate, about 80% of the country. You simply have to save. Unless you absolutely need things like a cell phone, new car, gadgets, and every other way of mindlessly spending money, you simply have to earn, save and invest. I think 80% of people know HOW to do, but just choose to spend their money in bars, on new cars, gadgets, music, gambling, tattoos, eating out, cigarettes, and other shit they don't need or can't afford. 80% know how, but only about 5% actually DO. It's hard, man. I know I wasted about 15 years of mindless spending on all sorts of dumb shit and I regret it. But I started over and have had a VERY nice 5 or so years. I budget everything now and have realized that I can travel, live well, save and invest if I budget my money properly. And I still want to get even better.

S2M wrote:

Pelata wrote:

I think 80% of people know HOW to do, but just choose to spend their money in bars, on new cars, gadgets, music, gambling, tattoos, eating out, cigarettes, and other shit they don't need or can't afford. 80% know how, but only about 5% actually DO.

Very true...

Wrong. Life(American Dream) shouldn't be some delayed gratification thing. People shouldn't have to work 50 years, THEN enjoy the fruits. People needn't pay into SS for 50 years, only to die 2 years into retirement, and the money goes back into the pot. What's the point of working if there is nothing to look forward to? The worker should get to enjoy life during life...not when they are arthritic, or wheelchair bound in their 70s, collecting $600 a month, having to decide whether to eat, or take their meds...Why should I work my 20s, 30s, and 40s away...just so I can enjoy my 60s and 70s? How backwards is that?

trekman wrote:Doesnt anyone see who is REALLY in control. Its not the people, and it isnt our government.

Ehwmatt wrote:I'm starting to get really tired of the negativity. Of my friends, all of those who are qualified are working decent jobs and doing fine. Of my friends who fucked up and did shit the wrong way, they are hurting, just as they would have been in any other economic era.

I know there are people hurting, but at some point I think the negative prognostications and negative people are doing more harm than good. I just blew up on my one friend who has been whining to me non-stop the past 3 months. Without going into detail, he has reaped what he is now sowing and I have 0 pity for him and finally told him not to come bitching to me anymore.

Behshad wrote:But with your ideas above , if all you do is just save and not buy the stuff you enjoy , then what kind of a fucked up dream is that.
I work hard , but I also buy things that me and the family enjoy. Not all of them things that we need , but I rather enjoy the money I earned than save it and invest it and pass it on to my kids after I die.
I rather create fun memories for them now and provide them with a good life while under my roof than just give them money after I'm gone ...

Arkansas wrote:What's wrong with America?
1. Sense of Entitlement.
2. Instant Gratification.
3. Not wanting to work.
4. Thinking that the government should take care of us.
5. Lack of personal responsibility.
6. Lack of vision.
The list goes on and on.

later~

Andrew wrote:Greece, Ireland and Spain are all getting bailed out. But USA is the highest % on that list???

brandonx76 wrote:
Revenue/GDP is a little ambiguous...same as debt/revenue...what is revenue? tax reveneue? total federal government revenue?

Forget Debt To GDP, It's Debt To Revenue That Matters--And The U.S. Is The Worst
Gregory White

Morgan Stanley have published a report titled "Ask Not Whether Governments Will Default, But How" (via Zero Hedge) and while it makes some interesting points about who is going to get hit when sovereigns begin to exact "Financial Oppression" on creditors what we're most interested in is the discussion of debt to GDP ratios.

From Morgan Stanley's Arnaud Marès (emphasis ours):

Whatever the size of a government’s liabilities, what matters ultimately is how they compare to the resources available to service them. One benefit of sovereignty is that governments can unilaterally increase their income by raising taxes, but they will only ever be able to acquire in this way a fraction of GDP. Debt/GDP therefore provides a flattering image of government finances. A better approach is to scale debt against actual government revenues (see Exhibit 2). An even better approach would be to scale debt against the maximum level of revenues that governments can realistically obtain from using their tax-raising power to the full. This is, inter alia, a function of the people’s tolerance for taxation and government interference. Seen from this angle, the US federal debt no longer compares quite so favorably with that of European governments.

And Morgan Stanley put together a chart to make that comparison. The U.S. position, relative to its ability to raise revenue, looks weak compared to Europe:



It is, in many ways, no different than looking at a company. Recall Q2 earnings. Investors were not that concerned about surging profits, made through companies cutting spending, but rather the decline in revenues.

And while current bond yields or CDS pricing do not reflect that position in terms of U.S. sovereign debt, maybe there is an implied market assumption that the U.S. government could take in more revenue relative to its GDP, by either expanding revenues through economic growth or increasing taxes. And pushing this approach a bit further, even if the U.S. were to see a cut in government spending, increasing "profits" temporarily, would investors not be more concerned that revenues, via the taxes paid by those in government work evaporating, would decline?


Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/dept-to- ... z1K5ereSdp

The Keynesian Endpoint – Things Become Nonlinear

As Professor Ken Rogoff (Harvard School of Public Policy Research) describes in his new book, This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, sovereign defaults tend to follow banking crises by a few short years. His work shows that historically, the average breaking point for countries that finance themselves externally occurs at approximately 4.2x debt/revenue. Of course, this is not a hard and fast rule and each country is different, but it does provide a useful frame of reference. We believe that the two critical ratios for understanding and explaining sovereign situations are:

(1) sovereign debt to central government revenue and
(2) interest expense as a percentage of central government revenue.

We believe that these ratios are better incremental barometers of financial health than the often referenced debt/GDP – GDP calculations can be very misleading. We believe that central government revenue is a more precise measure of a government’s substantive ability to pay creditors. Economists use GDP as a homogenizing denominator to illustrate broad points without particular attention to the idiosyncrasies of each nation. Using our preferred debt yardsticks, we find that when debt grows to such levels that it eclipses revenue multiple times over, (every country is unique and the maximum sustainable level of debt for any given country is governed by a multitude of factors), there is a nonlinear relationship between revenues and expenses in that total expenditures increase faster than revenues due to the rise in interest expense from a higher debt load coupled with a higher weighted-average cost of capital and the natural inflation of discretionary expenditure increases.

The means by which sovereigns fall into this inescapable debt trap is the critical point which must be understood. In some cases, on-balance-sheet government debts (excluding pension shortfalls and unfunded holes in social welfare programs) exceed 3x revenue, and current fiscal policies point to a continuing upward trend.

Saint John wrote:

Behshad wrote:But with your ideas above , if all you do is just save and not buy the stuff you enjoy , then what kind of a fucked up dream is that.
I work hard , but I also buy things that me and the family enjoy. Not all of them things that we need , but I rather enjoy the money I earned than save it and invest it and pass it on to my kids after I die.
I rather create fun memories for them now and provide them with a good life while under my roof than just give them money after I'm gone ...

I never said that you can't have any "toys," but they shouldn't come first. You seem like a responsible guy and a good parent, and I'm quite sure that while you spend and enjoy, you also make sure that the safety and welfare of your family comes first.

I know a few people that had their homes in foreclosure, and they scoffed at me when I politely suggested that they sell their cars and buy a far less expensive one, give up their cell phone or land line, start hitting up coupons and ask their spouses (in 2 instances) to get a part-time job. They just looked at me like I had a 19 inch dick coming out of my ear. In the end, I was glad they were losing their homes. They failed America, not the other way around. It's the mindset of the country that is fucked up ... not the "dream." Excuses, excuses, excuses. Blah, blah, blah. I equate it to the acceptance of suicide. Not in every case, but in the vast majority of cases, these people are just losers. And in the end, sometimes you just can't fix that.