President Barack Obama - Term 1 and 2 Thread

[Rick]

[Behshad]

So When are the military activities commencing in Iran?

Only if Romney gets in office , so never !

Romney's not the one getting tough on Iran though, Obama and his administration is.

Romney can not get tough on Iran , cause he is just a Governor !
If he was in office today, he would have started a war yesterday!

[The Sushi Hunter]

So what do you feel about Obama and his administration getting tough on Iran now?

[The Sushi Hunter]

Monica is starring in a new movie called "Blown In 60 Seconds", in this movie instead of cars it's married guys.

[Behshad]

Has any of you seen this coin ? It does exist ! One of my coworkes got it from the local gas station

[Monker]

"We have got to stop worrying about condoms, Muslims, and the gays marrying or our entire party is going to be gone in eight years." -- A Republican state legislator.

Wow, there are actually some Republicans who are living in the real world.

[Seven Wishes2]

"I'm going to win Ohio," Romney told NBC's Ron Allen in an interview. "I'm going to become the next president."

LIKE

He's down by nine points, dumbass.

[Seven Wishes2]

Boy, you really take all the bait, don't you?

Anyway, no-one is lying about what Romney has or hasn't said. It's all there in the public record. He's waffled more than a short-order cook at the Pancake House.

[Seven Wishes2]

I don't know what you're smoking, but you have about as much backup there as a broken-down '76 Pinto 500 miles from the nearest town on Route 21.

Dude, seriously. He's got a significant lead in 5 of the 8 swing states, and only needs to take one to win. You sure keep 'em coming, though.

[The Sushi Hunter]

On election day we will know what the verdict is.

[Behshad]

On election day we will know what the verdict is.

[The Sushi Hunter]

And that's why I don't trip over any of these postings.

[The Sushi Hunter]

Actual voting hasn't even started yet so where are they getting any of these figures? Are polls that accurate?

[Behshad]

And that's why I don't trip over any of these postings.

Can you at least try to watch the debate next Wednesday with an open mind !?

[The Sushi Hunter]

In regards to this thread, I would dare to say I'm about one of the most open minded there is on here.

[Behshad]

Also keep in mind that the polls only show O winning again when the poll sample is D+4 or higher. At D+2 Romney wins and at even sample 50/50 it's Romney by 2.6% ahead. The Rassmussen poll is based on current party registration which right now the Pubbies have pulled ahead by 37.6 to 33.3.

You're basically saying that the only polls that count are the ones that are biased more towards the Republicans

[Behshad]

In regards to this thread, I would dare to say I'm about one of the most open minded there is on here.

Good one.

[The Sushi Hunter]

True one actually, in response to you Bahshad.

[Behshad]

Also keep in mind that the polls only show O winning again when the poll sample is D+4 or higher. At D+2 Romney wins and at even sample 50/50 it's Romney by 2.6% ahead. The Rassmussen poll is based on current party registration which right now the Pubbies have pulled ahead by 37.6 to 33.3.

You're basically saying that the only polls that count are the ones that are biased more towards the Republicans

Don't be silly, it's not biased when you use accurate numbers and any poll that is polling the Dems at +8 is too heavily skewed. It's not an accurate representation of reality B.

So Rasmussen is not biased, right?

[Behshad]

True one actually, in response to you Bahshad.

Actually FactFinder is more open minded than you !

[Behshad]

http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colber ... ndow-gaffe

[Behshad]

Also keep in mind that the polls only show O winning again when the poll sample is D+4 or higher. At D+2 Romney wins and at even sample 50/50 it's Romney by 2.6% ahead. The Rassmussen poll is based on current party registration which right now the Pubbies have pulled ahead by 37.6 to 33.3.

You're basically saying that the only polls that count are the ones that are biased more towards the Republicans

Don't be silly, it's not biased when you use accurate numbers and any poll that is polling the Dems at +8 is too heavily skewed. It's not an accurate representation of reality B.

So Rasmussen is not biased, right?

No. He correctly picked many elections closer than some other polling groups.

Listen to Peter Brown of Qinnipiac when questioned about these skewed numbers.

Hugh Hewitt interviews Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac polling

HUGH HEWITT: Why would guys run a poll with nine percent more Democrats than Republicans when that percentage advantage, I mean, if you’re trying to tell people how the state is going to go, I don’t think this is particularly helpful, because you’ve oversampled Democrats, right?

PETER BROWN: But we didn’t set out to oversample Democrats. We did our normal, random digit dial way of calling people. And there were, these are likely voters. They had to pass a screen. Because it’s a presidential year, it’s not a particularly heavy screen.

HEWITT: And so if, in fact, you had gotten a hundred Democrats out of a hundred respondents that answered, would you think that poll was reliable?

BROWN: Probably not at 100 out of 100.

HEWITT: Okay, so if it was 75 out of 100…

BROWN: Well, I mean…

HEWITT: I mean, when does it become unreliable? You know you’ve just put your foot on the slope, so I’m going to push you down it. When does it become unreliable?

BROWN: Like the Supreme Court and pornography, you know it when you see it.

HEWITT: Well, a lot of us look at a nine point advantage in Florida, and we say we know that to be the polling equivalent of pornography. Why am I wrong?

BROWN: Because what we found when we made the actual calls is this kind of party ID.

HEWITT: Do you expect Democrats, this is a different question, do you, Peter Brown, expect Democrats to have a nine point registration advantage when the polls close on November 6th in Florida?

BROWN: Well, first, you don’t mean registration.

HEWITT: I mean, yeah, turnout.

BROWN: Do I think…I think it is probably unlikely.

Can you find us some poll figures Rasumssen predicted from 4 years ago !?

[Behshad]

http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/419433/september-25-2012/mitt-romney-s-airplane-window-gaffe

That was a joke and everyone in the room knew it. This is textbook of slime politics gone wild.

"Basically he was retelling the story and when he said ‘I don’t know why they don’t have roll down windows on airplanes,’ he looked at the audience and everyone laughed,” Everitt told TheBlaze. “It was a clearly delivered joke … There were 1,000 people there that will tell you the same thing.”

Yep it sure was a joke

[Behshad]

And dont bring the LAST day prediction from November 4th, when Rasmussen finally got it right ;)

[Behshad]

How Did We Do?

The final Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Election 2008 showed Barack Obama leading John McCain 52% to 46%. We are pleased to report that those figures precisely matched the actual election returns.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... cking_poll

I had a feeling you would bring up the poll on THE DAY of election,

[Gin and Tonic Sky]

So Rasmussen is not biased, right?



No. He correctly picked many elections closer than some other polling groups.

True the problem is that Zogby (who I think still do Fox news's polling) used to be the guys who were always right. Not anymore. Each election has a turnout model that is different so its difficult to decide what year to measure it by. You certainly cant measure 2012 by 2010 or 2008 , do you use 2004 or 2000 though? that was along time ago. Rasmussen is probably closer to being right, but you don't know how much of Romney's supposed base will turn out (e.g how many evangelical Christians will never vote for a Mormon - or all kinds of other factors) . So any poll is guesswork.

I myself pay attention to Intrade trends. That's real nerds betting real nerd money on political outcomes. And they really do get things accurate.

Sadly though the debate on whose poll is biased or uses the right methodology obscures any debate over the issues. How about debating today's fantastic GDP downgrade to 1.3 % for example?

[Rick]

A killer picture.

Also a killer picture.

[Gin and Tonic Sky]

I have no idea why you wouldn't include 2010 in your equations, it's the most recent example, and I believe it will replicate again and possibly be bigger. I don't believe for one minute that turnout for the Pubbies is any problem at all. It's going to be HUGE!

Because never in American History has a turnout model for a midterm election matched the turnout model for a general election. Even folks who think all these polls are biased such as Dick Morris aren't using a 2010 turnout model in their calculations. Republican enthusiasm might be up and higher than Democratic voter enthusiasm, but there are a large mass of persons who vote only in presidential elections.

Plus there are some (its too early to say how big that group is, but it could be sizeable in places like Colorado and Nevada ) who voted for a republican congressional candidate in 2010 , who might vote for a republican party congressional candidate 2012 but not Romney, because the see no point in having a liberal Republican RINO president.

[The Sushi Hunter]

SEIU Paid Protesters at Romney Cleveland Ohio Rally

Admit to being paid $11 an hour..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=p ... 5DTqvX74O4

I remember learning about this exact tactic while in Japan in the '80s. The Japanese protesters who would protest the U.S. military bases while I was stationed there were paid to protest. Of course I was told about this by my Japanese girlfriend. Not sure how many other American's knew this. They would be paid something like 10,000 yen each to protest "Yankee go home" and "No Nukes". Back then 10,000 yen was some good money.

Another thing the Japanese protesters would do is video tape Americans answering questions like "what do you like about Japan" and shit like that. The American would say something trying to be nice but then the Japanese would alter the audio and have the question something like "is there nuclear bombs on base?" They would then remove the audio portion of the video at where the guy answers and insert a caption at the bottom with something like "yes we have lots of nuclear weapons on base." It became such an issue that we were no longer allowed to say anything even if asked how we are doing, etc. since this was such a common practice for the Japanese protesters and anti-American groups in Japan back in the late '80s, even sent to the brigg if we said just one word to anyone participating in the protests outside the base.

[Seven Wishes2]

Poll companies do not go out of their way to find Democrats - it is just that there are more of them on voter registers than there are Republicans and independents.
Thirty-five percent of American registered voters identify with Democrats, 28 percent with Republicans, and 33 percent are independents, according to a massive Pew study in August.

To say nothing of the GOP rigging "town halls" for Dubbya in 2000 and 2004 by stacking them exclusively with Republicans and conservative commentators.

Give it up. There is no media conspiracy. Romney is going to lose, period. And who would want Obama's job, anyway? No matter who's in there, it won't make much difference.