by Eric » Tue Jun 26, 2007 8:46 am
I'm not so sure it is such a small dent.
I believe that The "1,000" is closer to "10,000" if you factor in all of the hardcore active AND non-active forum participants. Additionally, when we're talking about casual fans, the hardcore contributes greatly to that. I usually go to 2-3 shows a year and on average bring 4-6 others with me. So, I don't really count as 1.....I count as 10. If I stop attending their shows, they lose 10 people. I don't think it is a stretch to say that is common among the hardcore. If everyone of us hardcore stops going I think Journey will lose close to 100,000 off of their total attendance. That is 20% - 25%. Moving forward, the casual fans we take to each show will have no chance at becoming hard core...and then will continue to decrease the next few years. I agree with Strangegrey...they are done by the end of the decade.
Additionally, I wouldn't be so sure that the casual fan will come so easy. The lead singer change is enough of a joke to be a minor story. Friends of mine have forwarded me links and said.....YOUR BAND IS A JOKE. That may or not weigh in the back of someone's mind buying a ticket. I think it will at least for upfront shows. Journey will draw well on a nice summer Friday or Saturday night, but I'm not so sure they will draw no matter what any longer.
Finally, we, the hardcore, are the ones who buy the VIP seats, wear their logos and vote in polls to make them win. Who will do that now...and how much of an affect will that have on the percieved "largeness" of Journey.
Journey averaged 6,400 on the Generations tour. Without a big turnaround of our emotions (not ruling that out) or something big done on their part.....that number will be more like 3,500-4,000 by the end of the decade. That means opening act and Fair act.
Eric