Rockindeano wrote:separate_wayz wrote:DEMS: Hillary Clinton likely wins the nomination.
REPS: John McCain likely wins the nomination (although less certain).
If McCain vs. Clinton, McCain wins 38-40 states. In addition to having very high unfavorables among independents (including women), Clinton suffers from a bruising primary campaign, her husband's perceived race-baiting during the primaries, and a disgruntled Democratic Left generally unhappy with her entire primary campaign. McCain would likely pick a former or current Governor as his VP nominee (and likely a known- and well-liked conservative, likely from Midwest or South). Clinton would also likely pick a current or former Governor (Midwest likely). McCain would likely poll very high among independents and Democrats. Clinton suffers from negatives that are almost as high as her positives and would poll poorly among Republicans and unsatisfactorily among independents. (Positives = 50%, negatives = 46% in a January 2008 poll, although her negatives > positives in December 2007.)
http://www.pollingreport.com/gallery2.htm#FAVIf Romney vs. Clinton .... too close to call. As a former Governor, Romney would pick for a VP nominee a former or current Senator for foreign policy expertise. Also ... the odds increase for a third-party candidacy by Michael Bloomberg, and then all bets are off about who wins.
BTW: John Edwards would be considered as Attorney General (in an Obama administration), not as VP. Democrats would salivate at the opportunity to have a trial lawyer heading-up the Justice Department.
LOL.
Nice try, but don't quit your day job.
Romney would be the dream nominee for DEMS. Too close to call? Dude, Hillary leads him by 12 points.
She leads McCain too.
The thing is, once the Dems have their nominee, they will unite and crush the GOP> The Dems have a huge lead in independents and will win.
States? Who cares. Of course the GOP will win more states. The Dems will win the popular vote and the most electoral college votes.
I was originally think Evan Bayh of Indiana would be her VP, but not now. The huge dissension with the Obama and Hill camp is going to have them uniting. He will be her VP. Clinton/Obama will crush, easily, any form of GOP team.
Tell ya what -- I'll keep my day job, you keep yours next to the Slurpee machine, k?
Let me teach you how presidential polling works, since you obviously don't know. (Only one of us has actually earned a living in successful political campaigns. It's not you.)
Early generic polls ("Who would you vote for, the Democrat or the Republican?") simply measure how parties are perceived. At this point, Demcrats win by a wide margin. But in real life, there are names attached. When you add actual names ("Who would you vote for, John McCain or Hillary Clinton?"), the numbers change dramatically. At this point (Jan. 28), McCain wins 46.3% to Clinton's 46.2%. So, no, she does not lead McCain. She leads Romney 51.0 to 39.5 (Realclearpolitics average, although in Rasmussen she leads by only 47 to 42 and Rasmussen consistently has better polling.) These numbers more reflect name-identification than favorable/unfavorable ratings.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... n-224.html
The numbers for McCain-vs-Clinton make perfect sense. Clinton would have trouble getting above 46%, because that's been about the average of her positives for years. (Positive vs. Negative polling for Hillary Clinton exists going back to 1993, f.y.i.)
Let me explain the issue of states to you (that John McCain would likely win 38-40 states). You win in the US by gaining electoral votes. You cannot put together a realistic coalition of 38 states and win a presidential election in a two-party race. Sorry, not going to happen. Because McCain would likely poll well in some Democratic-leaning states, Clinton would spend considerable resources shoring-up her base -- and would have to expend even more resources after her husband's embarrassing race-baiting in South Carolina.
By the way, if you think Clinton and Obama are going to be on the same ticket, you need to stop masturbating in front of your computer. Not going to happen. Clinton would be more likely to choose Bill Richardson from New Mexico, which would help her among Hispanics, and would specifically help her in both New Mexico (a swing state) and Colorado (which now leans Democrat). As Hillary Clinton's campaign is demonstrating, Hispanics are the new power in Democratic politics, not Blacks. The key for Democrats is maximizing Hispanic turnout for Democrats.
School's out.
that statement was no more rash or extreme as some that have been leveled by the reps and cons directly at Dean, Daniel and I. I guess some can just dish out more than they can take.
