OT: article on global cooling

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OT: article on global cooling

Postby lights1961 » Sat Feb 09, 2008 2:48 am

it doesnt have the writers name in here...but i will say remember if you are in your mid 40s or maybe a little older ---back in jr high we were doing studies on the new ice age...
just an interesting read about different sun cylces and what it all means.




The Sun Also Sets
By INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY | Posted Thursday, February 07, 2008 4:20 PM PT

Climate Change: Not every scientist is part of Al Gore's mythical "consensus." Scientists worried about a new ice age seek funding to better observe something bigger than your SUV — the sun.


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Related Topics: Global Warming


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Back in 1991, before Al Gore first shouted that the Earth was in the balance, the Danish Meteorological Institute released a study using data that went back centuries that showed that global temperatures closely tracked solar cycles.

To many, those data were convincing. Now, Canadian scientists are seeking additional funding for more and better "eyes" with which to observe our sun, which has a bigger impact on Earth's climate than all the tailpipes and smokestacks on our planet combined.

And they're worried about global cooling, not warming.

Kenneth Tapping, a solar researcher and project director for Canada's National Research Council, is among those looking at the sun for evidence of an increase in sunspot activity.

Solar activity fluctuates in an 11-year cycle. But so far in this cycle, the sun has been disturbingly quiet. The lack of increased activity could signal the beginning of what is known as a Maunder Minimum, an event which occurs every couple of centuries and can last as long as a century.

Such an event occurred in the 17th century. The observation of sunspots showed extraordinarily low levels of magnetism on the sun, with little or no 11-year cycle.

This solar hibernation corresponded with a period of bitter cold that began around 1650 and lasted, with intermittent spikes of warming, until 1715. Frigid winters and cold summers during that period led to massive crop failures, famine and death in Northern Europe.

Tapping reports no change in the sun's magnetic field so far this cycle and warns that if the sun remains quiet for another year or two, it may indicate a repeat of that period of drastic cooling of the Earth, bringing massive snowfall and severe weather to the Northern Hemisphere.

Tapping oversees the operation of a 60-year-old radio telescope that he calls a "stethoscope for the sun." But he and his colleagues need better equipment.

In Canada, where radio-telescopic monitoring of the sun has been conducted since the end of World War II, a new instrument, the next-generation solar flux monitor, could measure the sun's emissions more rapidly and accurately.

As we have noted many times, perhaps the biggest impact on the Earth's climate over time has been the sun.

For instance, researchers at the Max Planck Institute for Solar Research in Germany report the sun has been burning more brightly over the last 60 years, accounting for the 1 degree Celsius increase in Earth's temperature over the last 100 years.

R. Timothy Patterson, professor of geology and director of the Ottawa-Carleton Geoscience Center of Canada's Carleton University, says that "CO2 variations show little correlation with our planet's climate on long, medium and even short time scales."

Rather, he says, "I and the first-class scientists I work with are consistently finding excellent correlations between the regular fluctuations of the sun and earthly climate. This is not surprising. The sun and the stars are the ultimate source of energy on this planet."

Patterson, sharing Tapping's concern, says: "Solar scientists predict that, by 2020, the sun will be starting into its weakest Schwabe cycle of the past two centuries, likely leading to unusually cool conditions on Earth."

"Solar activity has overpowered any effect that CO2 has had before, and it most likely will again," Patterson says. "If we were to have even a medium-sized solar minimum, we could be looking at a lot more bad effects than 'global warming' would have had."

In 2005, Russian astronomer Khabibullo Abdusamatov made some waves — and not a few enemies in the global warming "community" — by predicting that the sun would reach a peak of activity about three years from now, to be accompanied by "dramatic changes" in temperatures.

A Hoover Institution Study a few years back examined historical data and came to a similar conclusion.

"The effects of solar activity and volcanoes are impossible to miss. Temperatures fluctuated exactly as expected, and the pattern was so clear that, statistically, the odds of the correlation existing by chance were one in 100," according to Hoover fellow Bruce Berkowitz.

The study says that "try as we might, we simply could not find any relationship between industrial activity, energy consumption and changes in global temperatures."

The study concludes that if you shut down all the world's power plants and factories, "there would not be much effect on temperatures."

But if the sun shuts down, we've got a problem. It is the sun, not the Earth, that's hanging in the balance.



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Postby mistiejourney » Sat Feb 09, 2008 3:26 am

I definitely remember it was an "ice age" that we were all discussing back in 1970! That's why I figure everything goes in circles and I'm not so hot (pun intended) about global warming; it's just the other end of the pendulum...
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Postby 7 Wishes » Sat Feb 09, 2008 3:33 am

Politicians in the nation's capital have been reluctant to set limits on the carbon dioxide pollution that is expected to warm the planet by 4 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit during the next century, citing uncertainty about the severity of the threat. But that uncertainty may have shrunk somewhat with the release last week of two scientific reports suggesting that global warming is not just a hypothetical possibility, but a real phenomenon that has already started transforming especially sensitive parts of the globe.

Overall, the reports say, Earth's climate has warmed by about 1 degree Fahrenheit since 1900. In the Arctic, where a number of processes amplify the warming effects of carbon dioxide, most regions have experienced a temperature rise of 4 to 7 degrees in the last 50 years.

That warmth has reduced the amount of snow that falls every winter, melted away mountain glaciers and shrunk the Arctic Ocean's summer sea ice cover to its smallest extent in millennia, according to satellite measurements. Swaths of Alaskan permafrost are thawing into soggy bogs, and trees are moving northward at the expense of the tundra that rings the Arctic Ocean.

These changes seriously threaten animals such as polar bears, which live and hunt on the sea ice. The bears have already suffered a 15 percent decrease in their number of offspring and a similar decline in weight over the past 25 years. If the Arctic sea ice disappears altogether during the summer months, as some researchers expect it will by the end of the century, polar bears have little chance of survival.

Things are less serious in the lower 48, where the effects of climate change have been more subtle. In much of the United States, spring arrives about two weeks earlier than it did 50 years ago. Tropical bird species have appeared in Florida and along the Gulf Coast. Species such as Edith's checkerspot, a butterfly native to western North America, have started dying out at the southern reaches of their ranges.

"Responses to climate change are being seen across the U.S.A," said Camille Parmesan, a biologist at the University of Texas in Austin. She is the co-author, with Hector Galbraith of the University of Colorado in Boulder, of "Observed Impacts of Global Climate Change in the U.S." The report was released Tuesday by the Pew Center on Global Climate Change, a non-partisan but not disinterested research organization dedicated to providing sound scientific information about global warming.

Parmesan and Galbraith acknowledge that nothing in the report would strike the average person as particularly alarming. They also allow that some of the past century's warming might have happened even if humans hadn't been pumping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. But they argue that the changes they describe should be taken as a "very clear signal" that climate change will have significant effects in coming decades.

"The canaries in the coalmine are squawking, and we should absolutely take that seriously," Galbraith said.

The Bush administration has argued that not enough is known about climate change to justify major efforts at forestalling or preventing future warming.

The Arctic report, released Monday, was commissioned by the Arctic Council, an international commission of eight countries, including the United States, and six indigenous groups. It was written by a team of 300 scientists.

"The report will be a valuable contribution to the literature on potential regional impacts of climate change, and the United States government will take its findings into account as it continues to review the science," State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said in a statement released Tuesday.

The United States faces a potential showdown with other members of the Arctic Council on Nov. 24, when representatives of the organization's members are scheduled to meet in Iceland to consider climate change policy recommendations.

The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has risen from 280 parts per million in 1800 to 380 parts per million today due to the combustion of fossil fuels. Carbon dioxide causes warming because it heats up more when exposed to sunlight compared to other atmospheric gases.

Scientists have always expected the Arctic to respond earlier and more intensely than other regions to the buildup of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, thanks to several phenomena that make the far north especially sensitive to climate perturbations. When warmer temperatures melt snow, for example, the bare ground that is exposed absorbs more heat than the white surface did, causing yet more warming. A similar thing happens when sea ice melts, exposing open water.

In the past three Septembers the Arctic sea ice has melted back 12 percent to 15 percent beyond its normal minimum extent.

"It almost suggests that maybe we're about to reach a threshold beyond which the sea ice may not be able to recover," said Mark Serreze of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo.

Ice in the interior of the Arctic pack normally remains frozen from year to year, growing thicker with each season. But the recent increase in melting has eaten into much of that multi-year ice. So while the Arctic Ocean still freezes over each winter, more of the solid cover now consists of thin single-year ice that melts every spring.

The Arctic is also particularly sensitive to warming because its plants and soil hold less water than more temperate environments. That means more energy reaching the ground is dedicated to heating the surface instead of evaporating water.

The atmosphere is thinner in the Arctic than it is farther south, which also intensifies warming. And while temperate zones shed some of their extra heat by shipping it north in ocean currents and meteorological fronts, the Arctic is the end of the line in that respect.

A small minority of scientists remains unconvinced that increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide can be held responsible for the recent warming, arguing that natural variability explains most if not all of the trend.

"It's very complicated and I believe people who claim they understand ... are just overestimating drastically their ability to do science," said Petr Chylek of the Los Alamos National Laboratory.

Scientists aren't the only ones who have noticed the Arctic warming trend. Inuit hunters in Canada and Saami reindeer herders in Finland have detected shifts in the migratory behavior of animals. In some cases, people whose elders taught them decades ago how to forecast storms from wind patterns and cloud formations have lost their predictive abilities to new weather patterns.

"One of the unique things about Arctic communities is how much they're tied to the land, and that's why this is such a big deal for them," said Harvard University geographer Shari Fox Gearheard.

Farther south, where the changes have been far less extreme and most people live far removed from the subtleties of their climate, a warmer world remains a hypothetical realm of scientists and environmentalists. But the latest reports suggest that in some of the world's more populated places, astute observers may soon begin to noticing that the climate is changing.
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Postby Rockindeano » Sat Feb 09, 2008 3:41 am

Global Warming is in fact real. Get over it.
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Postby NealIsGod » Sat Feb 09, 2008 3:42 am

Rockindeano wrote:Global Warming is in fact real. Get over it.


Yeah, but it's been pretty nice around Bmore lately. No complaints here. :)
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Postby mistiejourney » Sat Feb 09, 2008 3:43 am

NealIsGod wrote:
Rockindeano wrote:Global Warming is in fact real. Get over it.


Yeah, but it's been pretty nice around Bmore lately. No complaints here. :)


OT - Nig, I miss your old avatar! :cry:
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Postby conversationpc » Sat Feb 09, 2008 3:44 am

Rockindeano wrote:Global Warming is in fact real. Get over it.


I don't think anyone here is claiming that global warming isn't real. What is under debate is that it's largely caused by man. Get your facts straight.
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Postby Enigma869 » Sat Feb 09, 2008 3:49 am

Rockindeano wrote:Global Warming is in fact real. Get over it.



It very well may be real (and for the record, I think it is)! That said, I can tell you there aren't a whole lot of people in the northern part of this country who feel like there is a whole lot of global warming going on, this time of the year. I can tell you that winters in New England certainly aren't any warmer now than they were 30 years ago! Ice caps melting is a different issue and is clearly happening.


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Postby NealIsGod » Sat Feb 09, 2008 3:52 am

mistiejourney wrote:
NealIsGod wrote:
Rockindeano wrote:Global Warming is in fact real. Get over it.


Yeah, but it's been pretty nice around Bmore lately. No complaints here. :)


OT - Nig, I miss your old avatar! :cry:


I'm wearing this one for a few days in honor of Rip Rokken, Mistie. Don't worry, I have a ton of good ones.
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Postby conversationpc » Sat Feb 09, 2008 4:02 am

Enigma869 wrote:Ice caps melting is a different issue and is clearly happening.


Yet the ice in Antarctica, for instance, is actually getting thicker.
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Postby Barb » Sat Feb 09, 2008 4:10 am

I fully remember my best friend and I heading to santa cruz and laying out in the WARM SUN in February quite often back in the 80's. If we were to have those kind of temperatures around here now, the global warming zealots would be screaming this is proof postiive of their position.
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Postby Rockindeano » Sat Feb 09, 2008 4:17 am

conversationpc wrote:
Rockindeano wrote:Global Warming is in fact real. Get over it.


I don't think anyone here is claiming that global warming isn't real. What is under debate is that it's largely caused by man. Get your facts straight.


Oh sorry. Global Warming is real and Man is indeed contributing to it.
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Postby Rhiannon » Sat Feb 09, 2008 4:24 am

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Postby 7 Wishes » Sat Feb 09, 2008 9:56 am

conversationpc wrote:
Yet the ice in Antarctica, for instance, is actually getting thicker.


This is completely, 100% false. The ice shelf in both poles has shrunk MASSIVELY in the past 25 years.

Sorry, Dave. Love ya, man. But I gotta call you on this one.
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Postby weatherman90 » Sat Feb 09, 2008 9:59 am

Rockindeano wrote:Global Warming is in fact real. Get over it.


Haven't you heard, Deano?? We're back to GLOBAL COOLING! Start opening your windows in the winter to heat the planet! Do it for your kids - your grandkids!

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Postby conversationpc » Sat Feb 09, 2008 11:30 am

7 Wishes wrote:
conversationpc wrote:
Yet the ice in Antarctica, for instance, is actually getting thicker.


This is completely, 100% false. The ice shelf in both poles has shrunk MASSIVELY in the past 25 years.

Sorry, Dave. Love ya, man. But I gotta call you on this one.


You are 50% wrong. Seems we're both somewhat right. The ice at the outer edges of Antarctica is indeed shrinking. However, the ice further inland is thickening at the same time. This is from the BBC, not exactly a typical source for me...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4565935.stm

The ice sheet covering the interior of Antarctica is thickening, researchers report in the journal Science.

This bulge, which was recorded by satellite, may temporarily buffer rising sea levels, they believe.

Antarctica's "weight gain" is due to extra snowfall, caused by rising temperatures, the US-UK team thinks.

However, the scientists worry the overall mass of the Antarctic may be decreasing because ice near the coasts is melting, possibly at a greater rate...


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Postby 7 Wishes » Sat Feb 09, 2008 1:31 pm

OK, fair enough. Warrants further research on this end. Thanks for the info.
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Postby RedWingFan » Wed May 21, 2008 9:48 am

7 Wishes wrote:OK, fair enough. Warrants further research on this end. Thanks for the info.

Here's some new info for your research on the subject.
http://www.livescience.com/environment/ ... rheat.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.j ... ate130.xml

And this about Al Gore using a CGI shot in his "documentary"
http://newsbusters.org/node/20680?q=blo ... ient-truth
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Postby Saint John » Wed May 21, 2008 11:08 am

7 Wishes wrote:Politicians in the nation's capital have been reluctant to set limits on the carbon dioxide pollution that is expected to warm the planet by 4 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit during the next century


Good...let's get crackin'. The Chicago winters are cold as fuck.
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Postby Rick » Wed May 21, 2008 11:10 am

Saint John wrote:
7 Wishes wrote:Politicians in the nation's capital have been reluctant to set limits on the carbon dioxide pollution that is expected to warm the planet by 4 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit during the next century


Good...let's get crackin'. The Chicago winters are cold as fuck.


Dude, live in Dallas in the winter and Chicago in the summer. Problem solved. :lol:
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Postby Saint John » Wed May 21, 2008 11:11 am

Rick wrote:
Saint John wrote:
7 Wishes wrote:Politicians in the nation's capital have been reluctant to set limits on the carbon dioxide pollution that is expected to warm the planet by 4 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit during the next century


Good...let's get crackin'. The Chicago winters are cold as fuck.


Dude, live in Dallas in the winter and Chicago in the summer. Problem solved. :lol:


PM me your address. :lol: :shock: :twisted: :P
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Postby Sarah » Wed May 21, 2008 11:20 am

It blows my mind that there are people who deny the fact that global warming is happening. It all seems so obvious with the pollution in recent decades...
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Postby RedWingFan » Wed May 21, 2008 11:24 am

Sarah wrote:It blows my mind that there are people who deny the fact that global warming is happening. It all seems so obvious with the pollution in recent decades...

Sarah, it was warming up until 1998. Now scientists are predicting a 10 pause to buy them time to continue to try to turn CO2 into gold!
The Earth is now cooling do to natural cycles. MANMADE GLOBAL WARMING IS A HOAX! Great column on the subject below on the Earth's history of recorded temps. Please check it out. :D

http://www.businessandmedia.org/special ... andice.asp
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Postby Saint John » Wed May 21, 2008 11:34 am

Anyone who believes in Global Warming probably still checks under the fucking bed for the Boogeyman. :lol: What a load of shit.
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Postby 7 Wishes » Wed May 21, 2008 11:46 am

Right.

Canseco, I love ya, man, and I can't wait to party with ya this summer.

But...no scientific sanctioning body has ever ratified the refutation of the claim that global warming exists...whereas EVERY major scientific sanctioning body has agreed global warming exists.

And the rest of the world agrees...to the tune of about 95%...as do the rest of the world's scientists.
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Postby RedWingFan » Wed May 21, 2008 11:48 am

7 Wishes wrote:Right.

Canseco, I love ya, man, and I can't wait to party with ya this summer.

But...no scientific sanctioning body has ever ratified the refutation of the claim that global warming exists...whereas EVERY major scientific sanctioning body has agreed global warming exists.

And the rest of the world agrees...to the tune of about 95%...as do the rest of the world's scientists.

Conscensus IS NOT SCIENCE!!!! It's a hoax dude. Did you check out those links I posted? Seriously not trying to be an ass.
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Postby Saint John » Wed May 21, 2008 11:48 am

7 Wishes wrote:Right.

Canseco, I love ya, man, and I can't wait to party with ya this summer.

But...no scientific sanctioning body has ever ratified the refutation of the claim that global warming exists...whereas EVERY major scientific sanctioning body has agreed global warming exists.

And the rest of the world agrees...to the tune of about 95%...as do the rest of the world's scientists.


I don't buy it. It's a load of shit.
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Postby 7 Wishes » Wed May 21, 2008 11:51 am

Saint John wrote:I don't buy it. It's a load of shit.


That's cool. We disagree.

See if you can remember the source of this classic movie line, and how it applies to my positions on this broad...I mean, board.

"One, two, three, four, five...six, seven...
Well, there aren't enough flowers to go around, so some of you fellas are gonna have to share."
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Postby Rick » Wed May 21, 2008 12:17 pm

7 Wishes wrote:
Saint John wrote:I don't buy it. It's a load of shit.


That's cool. We disagree.

See if you can remember the source of this classic movie line, and how it applies to my positions on this broad...I mean, board.

"One, two, three, four, five...six, seven...
Well, there aren't enough flowers to go around, so some of you fellas are gonna have to share."


AH
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Postby conversationpc » Wed May 21, 2008 9:57 pm

Saint John wrote:
7 Wishes wrote:Right.

Canseco, I love ya, man, and I can't wait to party with ya this summer.

But...no scientific sanctioning body has ever ratified the refutation of the claim that global warming exists...whereas EVERY major scientific sanctioning body has agreed global warming exists.

And the rest of the world agrees...to the tune of about 95%...as do the rest of the world's scientists.


I don't buy it. It's a load of shit.


That's what it boils down to. :lol:
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